Summary
Cathy Stacey’s companion email to the July 22 BBI Q&A recording provides critical supplementary data and cycle-structure analysis. Three major contributions: (1) Data-centre land-price evidence — concrete examples of data-centre companies paying 25,000 normal acreage (14.4× premium), and 3M normal (5.3× premium), plus $500K/year option payments to keep land off the market. Over 1,000 hyperscale data centres worldwide, capacity doubling every 4 years, 54% US-based. Equinix flagged as a REIT to watch. (2) A critical cycle-structure observation: from 1908, there has been a 17-year span from US property top to top across 5 cycles — “like clockwork.” From 1911, a 14-year span from property low to high. In every cycle since 1908 (except WW2), both timespans coincided to top in the same year. Except this cycle. Top-to-top = 2023, low-to-top = 2026 — a divergence that “was telling us in advance that this current cycle would have some idiosyncrasies — in hindsight the COVID effect.” (3) The 14-years-up report attached with median time frames from cycle to cycle, and the real vs nominal house price discussion — UK real prices trending down since 2022/2023, same for the US. Phil’s July 2026 midpoint between April 2025 and October 2027 is confirmed via a chart showing months from important reversals to October 2027, with 19 (metonic cycle) and 91 as important numbers relating to 216 (“the number for the world’s soul” per Plato and the Quran).
Key Claims
- Data-centre land prices: 25,000 normal (14.4× premium); 3M normal (5.3× premium); $500K/year option payments to keep land off market. — confidence: high
- Over 1,000 hyperscale data centres worldwide; capacity doubled 2019–2024, estimated to double again in <4 years. 54% US-based, 16% China, 15% Europe. Average 100,000 sq ft; hyperscale up to 10 million sq ft. — confidence: high
- Equinix (REIT) flagged as a data-centre REIT to watch. — confidence: medium
- 17-year top-to-top cycle (1908 onwards, 5 cycles) and 14-year low-to-top cycle (1911 onwards) — both coincided to top in the same year in every cycle except WW2. This cycle diverges: top-to-top = 2023, low-to-top = 2026. The divergence was an advance signal of “idiosyncrasies” — the COVID effect. — confidence: high
- Real house prices trending down since 2022/2023 in both UK and US. The 14-years-up report documents the historical relationship between real and nominal house prices and how this helps time the cycle. — confidence: high
- October 2027 time-count convergence: months from important reversals to October 2027, with 19 (metonic cycle) and 91 as key numbers relating to 216 (“the number for the world’s soul” — Plato and the Quran). — confidence: medium
Predictions / Forecasts
- Data-centre land-price premiums will be vulnerable in a land-price-led downturn — status: pending
- The 2023/2026 cycle divergence signals this cycle’s idiosyncratic (COVID-affected) character — status: confirmed (structural observation)
Concepts Referenced
- 18.6-Year Real Estate Cycle — 17-year top-to-top, 14-year low-to-top cycle structure
- AI Bubble Thesis — data-centre land prices as cycle-peak signal
- Land Speculation — $360K/acre data-centre land premiums, option payments to keep land off market
- Real Estate Cycle Peak — top-to-top and low-to-top divergence
- Gann Time Counts — October 2027 convergence, metonic cycle, 216
Notable Quotes
- “They got 25,000. They’re offering ungodly amounts of money for this land.”
- “The cash price to buy the place was like 3 million if not for the data center.”
- “From 1908, for 5 cycles, there’s been a span of 17 years from US property top to top. Like clockwork. From 1911 there’s been a span of 14 years from property low to high. In every cycle since 1908 (bar the WW2 disruption) both timespans have coincided to top in the same year. Except for this cycle.”
- “This cycle there is a divergence. Top to top comes out in 2023 and low to top comes out in 2026. This, in my mind, was telling us in advance that this current cycle would have some idiosyncrasies — in hindsight the COVID affect.”