Gann #21 — Seasonal Dates, Dollar Weakness, XAR and META Watchlist Adds 8th July

Summary

Gann #21 focuses on the importance of seasonal dates and their midpoints for market timing. The US Dollar Index (DXY) rallied into the June 22 solstice following a change in trend around the May 4 midpoint date, and is now reversing lower — a move that benefits IEFA (unhedged international equity ETF) which is setting up in a short-term Mexican Pete pattern. The 30-year Treasury yield is reversing higher on the seasonal date after pulling back from a false breakout above 5%. Two new watchlist additions: XAR (Aerospace & Defense ETF) added to the US Watchlist above $295—aMexicanPetesetuptiedtothewar-profiteeringthesisfrom\ast TheSecretLifeofRealEstateandBanking\ast p.329;andMETA(MetaPlatforms)addedtotheShortWatchlistbelow$540 — a series of lower highs having peaked last summer, though lacking the flat bottom of an ideal short setup.

Key Claims

• Seasonal dates and their midpoints are important Gann dates to watch throughout the year, especially when markets are in a strong trend. — confidence: high
• DXY rallied into the solstice following a trend change around the May 4 midpoint, and is now reversing lower. — confidence: high
• Dollar weakness delivers a boost to unhedged international equity ETFs (IEFA) from a US investor standpoint. — confidence: high
• International equity outperformance relative to the US is a pattern seen at the end of the last two real estate cycles, partly driven by second-half dollar weakness. — confidence: high
• The 30-year Treasury yield had a false breakout from a Mexican Pete pattern above 5%; the yield is now reversing higher on the seasonal date after pulling back. — confidence: high
• A sustained breakout in longer-term rates can be traded with TBT (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury). — confidence: high
• XAR (State Street SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF) is setting up in a Mexican Pete pattern; watch for breakout above $295. — confidence: high
• War is a lucrative business (referencing The Secret Life of Real Estate and Banking p.329); companies profiting from war should do well as the cycle peak approaches and resource competition intensifies. — confidence: high
• META (Meta Platforms) added to Short Watchlist — series of lower highs, peaked last summer; watch for break below $540. Pattern lacks the flat bottom typical of ideal short setups but META is trading in a weak position. — confidence: medium

Predictions / Forecasts

• Dollar reversal lower → IEFA Mexican Pete breakout and international equity rotation (echoing 2008 parallel) — status: pending
• 30-year Treasury yield reversing higher on seasonal date → sustained breakout above 5% would trigger TBT trade — status: pending
• XAR breakout above $295 → long entry signal — status: pending
• META breakdown below $540 → short entry signal — status: pending

Concepts Referenced

• Gann Time Counts
• Mex Pete Trading Style
• Watchlists
• Bond Yields
• Intermarket Correlations
• US Dollar Hegemony
• Geopolitical Cycle

Notable Quotes

• “Seasonal dates and their midpoints are important Gann dates to watch throughout the year.”
• “Companies in the business of profiting from war should be doing well as we approach the peak of the real estate cycle and competition for resources becomes intense.”
• “Watching for a move in international equities is another way we can track and confirm our place in the cycle.”