PSE Sub #27 — Melbourne Q&A Event 2026: Recordings Now Available (Full Transcript)

Summary

Phil Anderson announced that recordings of the Melbourne Q&A event (held late May 2026 at Ross House) are now available to PSE members. The full transcript (Part 1: 2h03m, Part 2: 55m55s) is extraordinarily rich, covering: the theoretical foundations of PSE (land written out of economics, why the 18.6-year cycle is inevitable), the Trump “put” on markets, the Japanese 30-year bond as the critical rate to watch, Project 2025’s plan to abolish the Fed and make money private, AI as a late-cycle infrastructure boom, the Mars/moon land sale as a peak signal, Gann decade-cycle analysis, and a detailed roadmap from 2026 to 2032. Session 1 connects past economic cycles to today’s property and stock markets. Session 2 is a wide-ranging Q&A. A Bendigo intro session serves as a primer for new subscribers.

Key Claims

Land has been written out of economic textbooks by landlords/landowners over 200 years — reducing the three factors of production (land, labor, capital) to just two (labor, capital), which is why mainstream economists cannot forecast cycles. — Phil Anderson — confidence: high
“If we do not collect that rent, then we must get a real estate cycle. Must.” The 18.6-year cycle (14 up, 4 down) is a natural consequence of failing to tax land earnings. — Phil Anderson — confidence: high
Trump “put”: the Republican party will not allow markets to collapse — they will change policy to prevent decline, meaning the stock market is unlikely to go much lower in the next 12 months. “I’m unable to see the stock market going lower too much because Trump will adopt any policy by any means to protect those gains.” — Phil Anderson — confidence: high
Japanese 30-year bond (JGB) at all-time highs is THE rate to watch — if Japanese investors (largest buyers of US treasuries) repatriate to Japanese bonds, it creates a funding crisis for US debt. — Phil Anderson — confidence: high
Project 2025 aims to abolish the Fed and make money private — Trump’s family is positioning to control “world liberty” financial coins and Coinbase-backed private money. “When money goes private, you will see the biggest boom of all time and then the biggest collapse because the credit creation just gets right out of hand.” — Phil Anderson — confidence: medium
US Treasury is betting on AI and high growth — it’s the only way the American government can continue to pay its deficit and debt. “The American administration could not cope with interest rates going too much higher than here.” — Phil Anderson — confidence: high
The market won’t turn over until “absolutely everybody’s in with their absolute last 10 cents and in debt. And we’re not there yet, but it’s coming.” Trillion-dollar IPOs are the signal. — Phil Anderson — confidence: high
Melbourne’s rating system (net annual value on buildings vs. land-only) is why Melbourne still has one of the world’s least developed CBDs — the incentives discourage development. — Phil Anderson — confidence: high
2028 will be a very difficult year for the US — 60 years back from 1968 (one of the darkest years for the American economy), with stagflation parallels (high inflation + rising unemployment). — Phil Anderson — confidence: medium
October 2027 is a key stock market top window based on 90-year lookback (1937 peak), Gann decade cycle, and forecast curves. Key months August and October 2027. — Phil Anderson — confidence: medium
October 2028 is a key low window — 60 months from October 2023 (Hamas attack), 30 months forward from March 2026 low. — Phil Anderson — confidence: medium
2029 is a likely market low based on the 7-year cycle count (2022, 2015, 2008, 2001, 1994, 1987 — every 7 years). — Phil Anderson — confidence: medium
Mars land sale / Trump Tower on Mars could mark the top — echoes 2007 when proprietors sold land on the moon. “If land goes up for sale on Mars, it’ll bring everybody in.” — Phil Anderson — confidence: medium
The 60-year cycle may be shifting — Phil notes the Stilda Football Club aren’t performing, suggesting the 60-year pattern (1966→2026) may not carry through as expected. “I’m not seeing that 60 carry through.” — Phil Anderson — confidence: low
The NASDAQ is replacing the Dow as the leading index, just as Gann switched from railroad stocks to industrials after 1910. — Phil Anderson — confidence: high
At cycle peaks, the land market peaks first but at troughs, the stock market bottoms first. “Real estate’s a lot harder to offload.” — Phil Anderson — confidence: high
US housing has never had more than 14 years up as a homogeneous market (since 2011) — pointing toward a top. — Phil Anderson, citing Kathy — confidence: medium
AI job losses won’t start until a downturn — then corporations will eliminate 10% of workforce in earnest, creating serious deals by 2028-2031. — Phil Anderson — confidence: medium

Predictions / Forecasts

October 2027 stock market top — based on 90-year lookback (1937 Dow peak in March/August), Gann decade cycle year 7 top pattern, and forecast curve convergence. Key months: August and October 2027. — status: ⏳ pending
October 2028 market low — 60 months from October 2023 (Hamas attack emotional event); 30 months forward from March 2026 low. — status: ⏳ pending
2029 market low — 7-year cycle count (2022, 2015, 2008, 2001, 1994, 1987). — status: ⏳ pending
2028 difficult US year — 60-year lookback to 1968 stagflation; election year with troubles. — status: ⏳ pending
Trump won’t let markets decline — any policy reversal needed to protect stock market gains will be taken in next 12 months. — status: ⏳ pending
Mars land sale as peak signal — echoes 2007 moon land sale; could mark the cycle top. — status: ⏳ pending
US real estate has peaked or is peaking — 14 years up from 2012, New York City prices doubled, Kathy’s data shows never more than 14 years up. — status: ⏳ pending
AI-driven job losses 2028-2031 — 10% workforce reduction creates buying opportunities. — status: ⏳ pending

Concepts Referenced

Notable Quotes

“If we do not collect that rent, then we must get a real estate cycle. Must.” — Phil Anderson
“The market won’t turn over until absolutely everybody’s in with their absolute last 10 cents and in debt. And we’re not there yet, but it’s coming.” — Phil Anderson
“I’m unable to see the stock market going lower too much because Trump will adopt any policy by any means to protect those gains.” — Phil Anderson
“When money goes private, you will see the biggest boom of all time and then the biggest collapse because the credit creation just gets right out of hand.” — Phil Anderson
“The American administration could not cope with interest rates going too much higher than here. It would put their interest payments on the debt at levels that would be unsustainable.” — Phil Anderson
“If land goes up for sale on Mars, it’ll bring everybody in.” — Phil Anderson (echoing 2007 moon land sale)
“At the peaks, it’s the land market that peaks first. But at the bottom, it’s the stock market that will bottom first.” — Phil Anderson
“Now is not a time to be building up debt. It’s a time to be patient and wait for things to tip over a little bit.” — Phil Anderson

Notes

This is the recordings-released follow-up to the Melbourne Q&A event announced on 2026-05-25 and held on May 30, 2026. The full transcript was added to the archive file on June 29, 2026, providing much richer intelligence than the initial announcement email. Recordings are members-only at PSE site.

Part 1 (2:03:48): Theoretical foundations (land removed from economics, Henry George, 18.6-year cycle inevitability), Phil’s origin story (Fred Harrison’s 1983 book, 1991 Ross House start), Gann decade cycle analysis with historical Dow charts (1991-2000, 2001-2010, 2011-2020, current cycle), 20/60/90/120-year lookback curves, stock market vs. real estate timing (land peaks first, stocks bottom first), US housing market analysis (New York doubling, 14-year maximum), audience Q&A on land tax, negative gearing, AI job displacement, Trump put, and the forecast roadmap to 2032.

Part 2 (55:55): Project 2025 (abolish Fed, make money private), Japanese 30-year JGB risk, US Treasury betting on AI growth, Jupiter Fund and hedge fund strategy, 2028 Olympics as cycle marker, Gann midpoint theory applied to life events, Mars land sale as peak signal, AFL football cycle analysis (60-year pattern), Uranus-into-Gemini war cycle (McQuarta), 7-year cycle count for 2029 low.

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