Summary
Phil Anderson argues that inflation-sensitive sectors (gold miners, energy, copper) were already breaking out — many from Mexican Pete patterns — ahead of the U.S.-Iran conflict, validating the chart-reading approach over consensus forecasting. He identifies rising 2-year Treasury yields crossing above the fed funds rate and a pending breakout in the 30-year yield at 5.0% as key signals of impending monetary tightening, with significant implications for the late-stage real estate cycle upswing. The email also launches a short-selling watchlist and includes a Gann ephemeris exercise tied to the March equinox weekend volatility.
Key Claims
- Gold mining stocks, energy equities, and copper prices are leading indicators of rising inflation — confidence: high
- Core PPI rose to 3.9% year-on-year as of the most recent report, up from 3.0% three months prior; PPI tends to lead consumer inflation — confidence: high
- For the first time since early 2023, the 2-year Treasury yield is firmly above the fed funds rate, signalling potential monetary tightening ahead — confidence: high
- The 30-year Treasury yield is forming a Mexican Pete pattern and testing resistance at the 5.0% level; a breakout would materially raise borrowing costs — confidence: medium
- Rising inflation and tighter monetary policy are likely catalysts marking the end of the current 14-year real estate cycle upswing — confidence: medium
- The March equinox weekend produced a seasonal volatility event consistent with Gann time methodology — confidence: medium
- GLD and RIO stop levels were triggered (raised stops), resulting in profitable exits for subscribers — confidence: high
Mex Pete References
- Gold mining stocks (general): Described as breaking out from Mexican Pete patterns ahead of Middle East conflict escalation
- Energy sector equities (general): Same breakout characterisation as gold miners
- 30-year Treasury yield: Explicitly identified as forming a Mexican Pete pattern on the updated chart; retesting resistance at 5.0% after a test of the lower trendline
- RH (RH) — Inverse Mexican Pete / descending triangle: Identified as the inverse setup (lower highs as resistance, common support at 130); used to introduce the short-selling watchlist
Stock Picks / Signals
| Ticker | Name | Signal | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLD | SPDR Gold Shares ETF | Exited (stop hit) | Raised stop triggered; profitable exit confirmed |
| RIO | Rio Tinto | Exited (stop hit) | Raised stop triggered; profitable exit confirmed |
| DBA | Invesco DB Agriculture Fund | Stop raised | New stop set at $26.50, near point of entry |
| RH | RH (Restoration Hardware) | Short watchlist — watch to short | Inverse Mex Pete; support at 130; entry trigger on break below $125 |
Predictions / Forecasts
- 30-year Treasury yield breakout above 5.0% anticipated; no specific date given
- Monetary tightening expected to follow 2-year yield signal; no specific date given
- Additional short setups expected to be added to the watchlist in coming months
- Gann date projections from the March equinox low: April 20 (30°), May 21 (60°), June 22 (90°) — subscribers directed to apply ephemeris sun-degree count to these dates for potential turning points
Notable Quotes
“Learn how to read a chart and what it means for the outlook for the economy. Overlay your knowledge of the real estate cycle on top of that, and you have all the tools to outsmart the ‘professional’ forecasters.”
“Expect to see us add more of these short setups in the months ahead as the prospect of higher inflation and tighter monetary policy helps usher in the end of this cycle’s real estate (14 years) upswing.”