Summary
Phil Anderson reviews market action to 3 February 2026, focusing on a failed breakdown in the US Dollar Index at the 96 level and the subsequent sharp pullback in gold (−~10%) and silver (−30%+) into the first seasonal midpoint of the year. He contextualises the volatility within the current real estate cycle, flags rising public-sector debt risks in Japan and the US, and updates stop levels on two existing positions while adding Westpac (WBC) to the Australian watchlist.
Key Claims
- The US Dollar Index made a failed breakdown at the 96 level and reversed higher — confidence: high (chart cited, Optuma)
- Gold fell nearly 10% in a single session; silver fell over 30% at one point during the week — confidence: high (stated explicitly)
- Despite the drawdown, gold remains above its 50-day moving average and the broader uptrend is intact — confidence: high (chart cited)
- Sharp, sudden short-term pullbacks can be bullish signals rather than trend reversals — confidence: medium (editorial judgement)
- The 2026 Roadmap (page 33) notes that seasonal midpoints appear more significant in “6” years — confidence: medium (internal document reference)
- Seasonal lows or highs at midpoint dates are good reference points for placing stop losses — confidence: medium (editorial framework)
- Japanese 10-year government bond yields have surged to record levels and recently broke out of a Mexican Pete pattern (from October) — confidence: high (TradingView chart cited)
- US interest payments as a share of total government spending have jumped post-pandemic and are projected to keep rising — confidence: high (Apollo data cited)
- The approaching real estate cycle peak may be driven by a public-sector debt crisis rather than the private-sector debt crisis of the prior cycle — confidence: low (speculative/forecasting)
- Kevin Warsh nominated as next Fed Chair; considered hawkish on balance sheet expansion — confidence: high (public record)
- Warsh’s perceived hawkishness contributed to the dollar reversal and precious-metals sell-off — confidence: medium (editorial interpretation)
Mex Pete References
- Japanese 10-year government bond yield – Mexican Pete breakout noted in October (prior to email date); recent acceleration above pattern cited as significant. Chart source: TradingView.
- Westpac Banking Corp (WBC) – Forming a Mexican Pete since November, with resistance around the 35 in August. Chart source: Optuma.
Stock Picks / Signals
| Ticker | Name | Action | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| FUEL | BetaShares Global Energy Companies ETF | Stop raised | New stop: $7.00 (near entry point) |
| XOM | Exxon Mobil | Stop raised | New stop: $125.00 (near entry point) |
| WBC | Westpac Banking Corp | Added to AU watchlist | Mexican Pete forming since November; resistance $39–40; watching for breakout |
Predictions / Forecasts
- Gold and silver expected to stabilise and turn higher around the first seasonal midpoint of 2026 (week of ~3 February).
- Precious metals tailwinds expected to remain strong for the remainder of the real estate cycle, driven by rising debt levels and currency debasement fears.
- US Treasury yields could replicate the Japanese yield surge, potentially triggering a public-sector debt crisis as the real estate cycle approaches its peak.
- Further discussion of seasonal midpoint strategy and stop-loss placement signalled for the following email (Gann Email #37).
Notable Quotes
“The mid points seem more important in the ‘6’ years for some reason, whatever that is.” — 2026 Roadmap, page 33 (quoted by Phil Anderson)
“It’s never obvious how and when, but the real estate cycle always seems to want to find a way to complete.”