Summary
Phil Anderson reports on continued commodity and mining stock strength consistent with the expected late-phase real estate cycle rally, noting the 18.6 Fund has doubled from inception. Two new Mexican Pete breakout entries are added to the model portfolio — ExxonMobil (XOM) and the BetaShares Global Energy ETF (FUEL) — while stop losses are adjusted upward on existing positions RIO, VAU, and GLD.
Key Claims
- Commodities are rallying at the expected point in the real estate cycle, consistent with forecasts made years in advance — confidence: high
- The 18.6 Fund (Australia) has returned 100% from inception, with 2M — confidence: high
- XOM has broken out from a multi-year resistance zone (125) after forming a series of higher lows from ~$100 since April 2025 — confidence: high
- FUEL has broken above long-standing $7 resistance with higher lows forming since April 2025 — confidence: high
- Both XOM and FUEL are breaking to record highs — confidence: high
- Oil tends to be among the latest commodities to move in the real estate cycle; these breakouts are treated as a cycle-location signal — confidence: high
- Complacency and hubris are flagged as ongoing risks despite strong fund performance — confidence: high
Mex Pete References
- XOM (ExxonMobil): Classic Mexican Pete / ascending triangle pattern. Resistance tested repeatedly at 125 over three years. Series of higher lows off 129.13, stop at $115 (most recent higher low before breakout).
- FUEL (BetaShares Global Energy Companies ETF): Described as “not the most perfect pattern” but qualifies as a Mexican Pete setup. Resistance near 7 confirmed during the week of 19 Jan 2026. Entry ~6.50 (most recent higher low before breakout).
Stock Picks / Signals
| Ticker | Action | Entry Price | Stop Loss | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XOM (ExxonMobil) | Buy / Add to model portfolio | $129.13 (open) | $115.00 | Mexican Pete breakout; record high |
| FUEL (BetaShares Global Energy ETF – ASX) | Buy / Add to model portfolio | ~$6.97 (Monday open) | $6.50 | Mexican Pete breakout; record high |
| RIO (Rio Tinto – ASX) | Stop adjusted upward | — | $141.00 | Pullback holding 50% retracement; stop locks in gain |
| VAU | Stop adjusted upward | — | $5.10 | Existing position; stop raised |
| GLD (Gold ETF) | Stop adjusted upward | — | $384.00 | Existing position; stop raised |
Predictions / Forecasts
- Commodities and energy stocks are expected to continue their ascent as the real estate cycle progresses toward its peak phase.
- Oil breaking to record highs is interpreted as a confirming signal that the cycle is in its late stage — no specific date or price target given, but framed as a key cycle-location indicator.
- Implied: further Mexican Pete breakouts are anticipated, with additional watchlist positions being monitored.
Notable Quotes
“Commodities and related producers tend to move very late in the cycle. Among commodities, oil is frequently very late in the cycle. If these breakouts hold, it’s another clue about locating our place in the real estate cycle.”
“There is utterly zero room in markets for complacency. And even less for hubris.”