Summary
Phil Anderson’s 30th Gann subscriber email, published on the last day of 2025, focuses on emerging volatility in global bond markets — particularly surging Japanese government bond yields — and what that may portend for US markets in 2026. The email also applies Gann time counts (45-day intervals aligned with seasonal dates) to the US Dollar Index (DXY) to identify likely trend-change windows, while flagging the $9 trillion US Treasury maturity wall due in 2026 as a key macro risk.
Key Claims
- Japan’s 30-year government bond yield has reached its highest level ever recorded (issuance only began in 1999) — confidence: high
- The Bank of Japan raised its short-term policy rate to the highest level in 30 years in December 2025 — confidence: high
- The US Federal Reserve cut rates by 0.25% for a third consecutive meeting at its final 2025 meeting — confidence: high
- Over $9 trillion in US Treasuries mature in 2026, representing approximately one-third of all US Treasury securities outstanding — confidence: high
- Much of this maturing debt was issued in 2021 at ~1.5% and must now be refinanced at ~4.0%+ — confidence: high
- US deficit spending in 2026 could exceed $2.0 trillion under various scenarios — confidence: medium
- The 10-year US Treasury yield is forming a symmetrical triangle continuation pattern, with 4.5% as key upside resistance; a break above would signal further yield increases — confidence: medium
- DXY has been cycling in approximately 45-day intervals aligned with seasonal/solstice dates (June solstice, September equinox, December solstice midpoints) — confidence: medium
- DXY peaked at point 4 around November 5 (near the midpoint between the September equinox and December solstice) and has since trended lower — confidence: high
- Counting 45 days forward from point 4 lands near the December solstice, suggesting a potential trend change in DXY at that time — confidence: medium
- Gold and silver are continuing to build on record highs into year-end 2025, potentially signaling concern about US fiscal outlook — confidence: high
- The true new year, from a Gann/cyclical perspective, begins at the Vernal Equinox on March 21 — confidence: high (as a stated framework principle)
- A break of DXY below the 2025 lows (points 1 and 3 on the chart) in 2026 would be a significant bearish signal for the US economy and public finances — confidence: medium
Mex Pete References
None.
Stock Picks / Signals
None.
Predictions / Forecasts
- DXY trend change window: ~December solstice (late December 2025), based on 45-day count from the November 5 peak (point 4); watch for another directional shift — timeframe: end of December 2025
- 10-year Treasury yield breakout signal: A weekly close above 4.5% on the 10-year yield would confirm a continuation pattern and signal a larger move higher in long-dated yields — no specific date given
- DXY bearish macro signal: A break below 2025 lows in 2026 would confirm deteriorating confidence in US fiscal position — timeframe: 2026, open-ended
- Part 2 forthcoming: Anderson indicates a follow-up email will cover additional economic signals from the bond market
Notable Quotes
“There are over $9 trillion in U.S. Treasuries maturing in 2026. That is about one-third of all U.S. Treasury securities outstanding (yes, you read that right).”
“The new year really starts at the Vernal Equinox, March 21. It’s important.”