Summary
Akhil provides the December 2025 Roadmap update. The 2025 Roadmap performed well — the actual curve (green) matched expectations of a stronger second half. November-December volatility is expected. The Dow correction began December 12, 30 days from the November 12 high. The “Buffett Indicator” (total US market cap / GDP) is at the highest level in the last half century. Fund managers are reporting lowest cash levels this century — no further capital to buy dips. S&P500 cap-weighted massively outperforms equal-weighted, driven by 7-8 mega tech companies. AI is the dominant industry of the current late-cycle, paralleling the Railway Boom of the 1840s (180 years prior — half of a 360-year cycle). ChatGPT launched November 2022, now driving trillions in capital investment.
Key Claims
- Buffett Indicator at the highest level in 50+ years. — confidence: high
- Fund managers at lowest cash levels this century — late-cycle fully-invested signal. — confidence: high
- S&P500 cap-weighted vs. equal-weighted gap is at widest in two decades (mega-tech dominance). — confidence: high
- AI (ChatGPT/Nvidia era) is the dominant industry of this cycle, paralleling the UK Railway Boom of the 1840s (180 years prior). — confidence: high
- Dow correction began December 12, 30 days after November 12 high. — confidence: high