Summary
Phil Anderson walks through the 2025 NDX chart to demonstrate a core Gann counting principle: the downtrend does not end at the bottom, but at the first higher low. He identifies a 30-week / 210-day / 7-month time count from the April 21 higher low to the November 21 low as a timing signal for a potential turn into Christmas 2025, supported by emotional market conditions (selloff, Bitcoin down) and a known Australian market seasonal turn date around November 21–23.
Key Claims
- The first higher low (not the absolute low) is the correct starting point for forward Gann time counts — confidence: high
- April 7, 2025 was the absolute low following the February 19 top; April 21 was the first higher low — confidence: high
- November 21, 2025 marks 30 weeks / 210 days / 7 months from the April 21 higher low, making it a significant time for a potential turn — confidence: high
- The Australian market has a well-documented seasonal tendency to turn around November 21–23, adding confirmation — confidence: medium
- Wednesday’s market action (post-November 21) confirmed the low had likely been put in; Thanksgiving holiday meant US markets were closed on the date of recording — confidence: medium
- The first lower top (mirror of the higher low concept) should similarly be used as a count origin in uptrend-to-downtrend sequences — confidence: high
Mex Pete References
None.
Stock Picks / Signals
None. Analysis is index-level only (NDX / NASDAQ 100).
Predictions / Forecasts
- NDX likely bottomed November 21, 2025 and is expected to rally into Christmas 2025, provided the November 21 low holds — confidence: medium
- October 29, 2025 identified as the prior swing high on NDX before the November pullback — confidence: high (stated as observation, not forecast)
Notable Quotes
“The down trend doesn’t finish until you get the first higher low, which is why you should always count… Count not just from tops and bottoms, significant tops and bottoms, you count from the first higher low or the first lower top.”
“That is 7 months, the number 7, it’s 210 days, it’s 30 weeks, so that’s a good time for a turn.”