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Summary
Phil reads late-cycle signals from newspapers. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are rehiring staff; Bill Pulte wants to privatize them in what he calls “the largest IPO in history.” Record $4.4B in debt backed by song rights (Bowie bonds) — previously too exotic for serious money but now being purchased by Apollo, KKR, Blackstone as yield search leads to fiber optic cables, music royalties, AI GPU-backed securities. US FinTechs and UK FinTechs looking to buy US banks as regulations ease. Trump wants to cut interest rates to near 1-0%. These are all end-of-cycle credit signals.
Key Claims
- “Bowie bonds” ($4.4B in music rights-backed debt) now being bought by major institutional investors — extreme yield search. — confidence: high
- Fannie/Freddie privatization (“largest IPO in history”) is a late-cycle credit event. — confidence: high
- FinTechs buying banks as regulations ease — exact pattern the real estate cycle history books predict. — confidence: high
- Trump seeking to reduce interest rates to near zero is a late-cycle political demand. — confidence: high
- Yield search creating new asset classes (fiber optic cables, music royalties, GPU-backed ABS) signals cycle end. — confidence: high