Summary
Phil Anderson uses the 2025 USD decline as a case study in combining Gann seasonal dates (solstices, equinoxes) and 45-day time counts to identify trend reversals in DXY, framing the dollar’s weakness within the second half of the real estate cycle. The email connects rising debt, deficits, and persistent inflation to the “currency debasement” trade, highlighting gold and silver as beneficiaries. Portfolio updates add energy sector names (IXC, XOM, CVX, FUEL) on Mexican Pete setups, while SXE is exited and GLD stop is raised.
Key Claims
- The USD Index (DXY) tends to peak during the second half of the 18-year real estate cycle, with each successive peak lower than the prior one — confidence: high
- DXY’s peak this cycle occurred in September 2022 — confidence: high
- Halfway through 2025, DXY was down over 10%, its worst showing since 1973 — confidence: high
- Key DXY turning points in mid-2025 aligned closely with solstices, equinoxes, and 45-day time counts — confidence: high
- DXY point 4 high (November 5) coincided with the 200-day moving average and formed a bearish double top relative to point 2 (August 1) — confidence: high
- Rising U.S. debt, large deficits, and ~3% inflation are catalysts that could drive the end of the current real estate cycle — confidence: medium
- Silver is testing the prior all-time high around $50/oz, forming a potential triple top (1980, 2011, 2025) — confidence: high
- Energy stocks tend to be among the last sectors to move in the later stages of the cycle; breakouts in energy would signal the second half is approaching its conclusion — confidence: high
- IXC has repeatedly tested the 44 support zone since early 2024 and is building a series of higher lows since April 2025 — confidence: high
Mex Pete References
- IXC (iShares Global Energy ETF): Described as setting up a Mexican Pete pattern; chart shows repeated tests of 44 support with higher lows since April 2025. Added to US Watchlist.
- XOM (Exxon Mobil): Listed as setting up a Mexican Pete pattern. Added to US Watchlist.
- CVX (Chevron Corp): Listed as setting up a Mexican Pete pattern. Added to US Watchlist.
- Silver (general): Author notes he will watch for a Mexican Pete pattern on the daily chart at the $50 all-time high resistance zone.
Stock Picks / Signals
| Ticker | Action | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| SXE (Southern Cross Electrical Engineer) | Exit / Stop hit | Stop triggered on daily close; position closed with a “decent gain” |
| GLD (SPDR Gold Trust) | Hold / Stop raised | Stop loss raised from 357 |
| IXC (iShares Global Energy ETF) | Added to US Watchlist | Mexican Pete setup developing; support 44 |
| XOM (Exxon Mobil) | Added to US Watchlist | Mexican Pete setup developing |
| CVX (Chevron Corp) | Added to US Watchlist | Mexican Pete setup developing |
| OZK | Removed from US Watchlist | No reason given |
| IONQ | Removed from US Watchlist | No reason given |
| NSR (National Storage REIT) | Removed from AU Watchlist | No reason given |
| FUEL (BetaShares Global Energy Companies ETF) | Added to AU Watchlist | Energy sector late-cycle setup |
Predictions / Forecasts
- DXY has reversed lower from the November 5 high (point 4) and is expected to continue declining, consistent with the second-half-of-cycle pattern — timeframe: near-term
- Silver at ~$50/oz is at a critical resistance (triple top); outcome unresolved — author watching for either a Mexican Pete breakout or continued rejection
- Energy sector breakouts (IXC, XOM, CVX) would serve as a confirming signal that the second half of the real estate cycle is nearing its conclusion — timeframe: cycle-scale
Notable Quotes
“That’s just one example of how you can combine knowledge of the cycle, seasonal dates, time counts, and chart patterns to spot and anticipate potential reversals in the trend for everything from stocks to currencies and commodities.”
“Given that energy stocks tend to be among the last to move during later stages of the cycle, breakouts would add further evidence that the second half is approaching its conclusion.”