Summary
Phil Anderson reviews market action around the early-November seasonal midpoint (midpoint between autumn equinox and winter solstice), noting trend reversals in the S&P 500 and gold near that key date. The email also covers the exit of Australian stock Duratec Limited (DUR) from the Mexican Pete model portfolio after it hit its stop loss, with a clarification on how intraday versus closing stops are handled.
Key Claims
- The first week of November represents a key seasonal midpoint between the equinox and solstice, and markets frequently turn around such dates — confidence: high
- The S&P 500 found a low on November 6 and reversed higher, extending its streak of consecutive closes above the 50-day MA to over 130 sessions — confidence: high
- GLD (gold ETF) found its recent high on October 20 and a subsequent low around November 4 before reversing higher — confidence: high
- The S&P 500 peaked on October 28 before pulling back into the seasonal midpoint low — confidence: high
- A market holding above its 50-day MA for 130+ consecutive sessions should not be shorted; preferred strategy is to buy dips on key dates — confidence: high
- DUR’s weakness was signalled by: a larger-than-average retracement of its August uptrend, loss of the 50-day MA, and failure of support from the September 15 gap higher — confidence: high
- For the model portfolio, stops are exercised on a closing basis (not intraday), with exit recorded at the stop price — confidence: high
- Cutting losers quickly while letting winners run is presented as the core discipline for long-term trading success — confidence: high
Mex Pete References
- DUR (Duratec Limited) is an open position in the Mexican Pete model portfolio that hit its stop and was exited.
- Stop was set at $1.95. On 16 October DUR briefly traded below this level intraday but did not close below it; the stock recovered the following day. The stop was subsequently triggered on a closing basis at a later date.
- All other Mexican Pete model portfolio holdings are noted as having held above their 50-day moving averages, in contrast to DUR.
Stock Picks / Signals
- GLD (SPDR Gold ETF): No explicit buy/sell signal; noted as having found a low ~November 4 and reversing higher. Watchlist/monitoring context.
- S&P 500 (SPX): No explicit signal; noted as having found a low on November 6 with a bullish reversal. Bias is long / do not short.
- DUR (Duratec Limited, ASX): EXIT / STOP HIT — Stop loss at $1.95. Position to be closed; subscribers instructed to ensure they no longer hold. Entry price used as the raised stop level (break-even stop).
Predictions / Forecasts
- Implicit forward guidance: seasonal and Gann time-count dates will continue to provide tradeable turning points; subscribers should watch for lows on key dates as buying opportunities.
- No specific price targets or future date forecasts are stated explicitly.
Notable Quotes
“That’s not a market you should be shorting. Far better to watch for lows on key dates and buy in.”
“The only way you win by trading over the long term is by cutting your losers quickly while letting your winners run. It’s our business to cut stocks in a weak position.”