Sub email #43 – 23 October 2025

Summary

Phil highlights the Electronic Arts (EA) $55 bi ll i o n l e v er a g e d b u yo u t — t h e l a r g es t L BO e v er, l e d b y J a re d K u s hn er (T r u m p^{'} sso n - in - l a w) . P r i or " l a r g es t e v er " L BO d a t es : TX U in 2007 an d R J RN abi sco in 1989— b o t ha t cyc l e p e ak s . A I d e b t m e g a - d e a l s : O r a c l e / G oo g l er ai s in g$ 170B in debt to fund AI ambitions. US small businesses borrowing at “nosebleed” interest rates from micro-lenders (backed by Wall Street) to cover tariff costs. US at war with Venezuela (world’s largest proven oil reserves). US pivot to Pakistan (opium capital, airbases for Iran strikes). Phil recommends the Shepheard-Walwyn BBB podcast on leveraged buyouts.

Key Claims

EA $55B LBO is the largest ever — prior “largest ever” LBOs occurred in 2007 and 1989 (cycle peaks). — confidence: high
AI companies (Oracle/Google) raising $170B in debt for AI ambitions. — confidence: high
US small businesses borrowing at nosebleed rates from micro-lenders backed by Wall Street. — confidence: high
US is now at war with Venezuela (world’s largest proven oil reserves). — confidence: high

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Sub email #43 – 23 October 2025

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