Summary
Phil Anderson uses copper price action on the LME and the COPX copper miners ETF as market-based evidence that the second half of the real estate cycle is continuing to unfold as expected, despite a partial U.S. government shutdown obscuring conventional economic data. He updates stop losses on several Mexican Pete model portfolio positions to protect gains, and flags extreme speculative conditions in quantum computing stocks as an early signal of the cycle’s eventual blow-off top.
Key Claims
- LME copper is forming a Mexican Pete (ascending triangle) pattern with higher lows since July 2022 and a flat top — confidence: high
- The Global X Copper Miners ETF (COPX) is breaking out to new record highs, signalling strong future earnings for a cyclically sensitive industry — confidence: high
- The S&P 500 near record highs and the cycle roadmap both point to a strong finish for 2025 — confidence: medium
- Market price action is a more reliable leading indicator than lagging government data such as the payrolls report — confidence: high
- Rigetti Computing (RGTI) doubling in a month with a 12.9M projected annual revenue reflects intensifying speculative sentiment consistent with late-cycle behaviour — confidence: high
- The further the boom extends, the larger the eventual bust will be — confidence: high
Mex Pete References
- LME Copper (spot): Explicitly identified as forming a Mexican Pete pattern — series of higher lows since July 2022 combined with a flat top resistance level. Described as a bullish setup consistent with this stage of the real estate cycle.
- Mexican Pete Model Portfolio (general): Anderson notes “very positive price action” from the Mex Pete model portfolio, prompting upward stop-loss adjustments across multiple positions (see Stock Picks / Signals below).
Stock Picks / Signals
| Ticker | Name | Action | Stop Loss Raised To | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LYC | Lynas Rare Earths | Raise stop | $16.40 | Protecting existing gain |
| IMD | Imdex | Raise stop | $3.25 | Protecting existing gain |
| SXE | Southern Cross Electrical Engineering | Raise stop | $2.00 | Protecting existing gain |
| VAU | Vault Minerals | Raise stop | $0.57 | Protecting existing gain |
| DUR | Duratec | Raise stop | $1.95 | Protecting existing gain |
| POL | Polymetals Resources | Raise stop | $1.05 | Protecting existing gain |
| GLD | SPDR Gold Shares ETF | Raise stop | $325.00 | Protecting existing gain |
| RGTI | Rigetti Computing | No trade taken | — | Breakout day range >20%; too much downside risk on entry; watchlist only; flagged as speculative blow-off signal |
| COPX | Global X Copper Miners ETF | Observational signal only | — | Breaking to new record highs; no specific trade entry noted |
Predictions / Forecasts
- S&P 500 expected to finish 2025 strongly, consistent with second-half real estate cycle roadmap — timeframe: Q4 2025
- Copper and copper miners expected to continue performing well as the real estate cycle’s second half unfolds — timeframe: medium-term, no specific date given
- Speculative intensity in markets (evidenced by RGTI-type moves) will increase as the cycle approaches its final stage — timeframe: unspecified, framed as a coming escalation
- The real estate cycle boom will eventually be followed by a proportionally large bust — timeframe: unspecified
Notable Quotes
“The market is telling us that the second half of the real estate cycle continues unfolding as we expect. It’s also another example of how interpreting market action will tell you more about what lies ahead for the economy than lagging economic indicators like the government payrolls report.”
“RGTI has more than doubled in just a month, and now has a market value of 12.9 million. Yes, you read that right, and I did not make a mistake. That shows the type of speculative mood coming over investors, and it will only intensify as we head toward the real estate cycle’s final days.”