Summary
Phil Anderson reviews macro conditions supporting the US stock market’s second-half 2025 rally, noting loose financial conditions and strong GDP growth estimates, while flagging the historical September equinox retrace risk identified in the 2025 Roadmap. The email delivers multiple watchlist and model portfolio updates across Australian and US equities, including additions in gold, quantum computing, LNG, and infrastructure sectors.
Key Claims
- US financial conditions are at their loosest level since 2021, supporting the real estate cycle’s run to its likely peak — confidence: high
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for Q3 2025 stands at 3.5% annualised, indicating economic strength — confidence: high
- Years ending in ‘5’ historically show a noticeable retrace around the September equinox (flagged in the 2025 Roadmap) — confidence: medium
- The Federal Reserve cutting rates despite loose conditions and above-target inflation is unusual but consistent with the real estate cycle reaching its conclusion — confidence: medium
- Commodity and natural resource-linked stocks are expected to outperform as the cycle matures toward its peak — confidence: medium
- Quantum computing stocks (RGTI, IONQ) are highly speculative with minimal earnings relative to market cap but can perform well in the late-cycle environment — confidence: medium
- President Trump’s executive action targeting LNG exports is a tailwind for Cheniere Energy (LNG) — confidence: medium
Mex Pete References
- Vault Minerals (VAU): Added from Australian watchlist to the Mexican Pete Model Portfolio; stock showing a breakout move over $0.48 with good follow-through.
- Westpac Banking Corp (WBC): Described as having gapped higher out of its Mexican Pete pattern, moving too quickly for a low-risk model portfolio entry; will monitor for re-entry using monthly Gann dates or next seasonal date.
Stock Picks / Signals
| Ticker | Exchange | Action | Trigger / Entry | Stop Loss | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAU (Vault Minerals) | ASX | Add to Mex Pete Model Portfolio | Move over $0.48 | $0.40 | Gold breakout from 4-month consolidation |
| DUR (Duratec) | ASX | Add to watchlist; wait for pullback | 2 days down from current extension | Not stated | Move above level of interest but overextended for entry |
| WBC (Westpac Banking Corp) | ASX | Monitor for re-entry | Monthly Gann date or next seasonal date | Not stated | Missed initial entry; gapped out of Mex Pete pattern |
| HSN (Hansen Technologies) | ASX | Add to Australian watchlist | Move over $6.10 | Not stated | Testing resistance below prior 2021 high of ~$6.00; higher lows since Aug 2024 |
| IONQ (IonQ) | NASDAQ | Add to US watchlist | Move over $50 | Not stated | Speculative; pulled back to 200-day MA, making higher lows since May 2025 |
| RGTI (Rigetti Computing) | NASDAQ | Add to US watchlist | Move over $20 | Not stated | Speculative; similar chart structure to IONQ |
| LNG (Cheniere Energy) | NYSE | Add to US watchlist | Move over $245 | Not stated | LNG sector; Trump executive action tailwind; testing prior high multiple times since June |
| OLLI (Ollie’s Bargain Outlet) | NASDAQ | Remove from US watchlist | — | — | Did not continue after initial move; no suitable re-entry identified |
Predictions / Forecasts
- Strong second half for 2025 US equities remains the base case, consistent with the 2025 Roadmap — timeframe: H2 2025
- A noticeable retrace around the September equinox is possible given historical pattern in years ending in ‘5’ — timeframe: ~September 22–23, 2025
- Real estate cycle expected to continue toward its peak; rate cuts from the Fed anticipated despite economic strength — timeframe: late 2025 / cycle conclusion
- Gold prices described as set to break out from a four-month consolidation — timeframe: near-term from September 2025
- Commodity and natural resource stocks expected to lead as the cycle approaches its peak — timeframe: late cycle
Notable Quotes
“The real estate cycle always has in the past found a way to reach its conclusion. And at the right time. I’m not presently expecting this current time to be any different.”
“We don’t chase stocks. There’s always another train leaving the station.”