Summary
Akhil provides the August 2025 market update. After April tariff volatility, markets have calmed. The 20/60-year curve suggested a low in June/July (expected to be a higher low after April’s sharp fall). In the event, markets haven’t even seen much of a low — they’ve been strong through summer, many back at all-time highs (US, UK, Australia, Germany, Japan, India). All forecast curves call for a strong finish to 2025. Tech stocks had a one-week selloff (possible sign of market sensitivity). Banking, insurance, resource stocks are moving up sharply. The 18.6 SIP (Oakleigh) is outperforming benchmark. US homebuilder trend is down; many cities experiencing housing market slowdown with price reductions.
Key Claims
- Markets are back at all-time highs globally as of August 2025 (US, UK, Australia, Germany, Japan, India). — confidence: high
- All PSE forecast curves call for a strong finish to 2025. — confidence: high
- US homebuilder stocks continue to trend lower — housing market slowing. — confidence: high
- Credit spreads are at all-time lows — no yield widening signal yet. — confidence: high
- The 18.6 SIP (Oakleigh) is substantially outperforming benchmark in 2025. — confidence: high
- Many US cities: housing market slowing, sellers reducing asking prices. — confidence: high