Summary
Phil argues tariffs won’t stop the real estate cycle — the cycle has persisted through every monetary system (gold standard, silver standard, fiat), every Republican/Democrat government, inflation/deflation. Property prices are a function of how much you can borrow, not the price itself. Long-term, tariffs create criminals of ordinary citizens (e.g., Luxembourg gas smuggling into France because of price differentials). He uses the Luxembourg-France gas price example to illustrate how tariff differentials inevitably create black markets.
Key Claims
- The real estate cycle has occurred under every monetary system — gold, silver, fiat, inflation, deflation. — confidence: high
- Property prices are a function of borrowing capacity, not price level. — confidence: high
- Long-term tariffs create criminals of ordinary citizens as people exploit price differentials. — confidence: high
- Tariffs benefit the same classes (monopolists) that Henry George identified in the late 1800s. — confidence: high