Summary
Akhil announces the Q2 2025 PSE Indicators Chartbook. Continuing mixed signals: positive indicators — Economic Bliss rising, commercial bank credit growing, money supply growing, S&P/Case-Shiller house prices still rising, yield curve normalizing. Warning indicators — corporate bond spread widening, US homebuilder ETF trending lower, NAHB homebuilder sentiment falling. Conclusion: economic momentum and liquidity improving, but housing pressures and market valuation risks are the key watchpoints.
Key Claims
- Q2 2025: economic bliss indicator rising, bank credit growing, house prices still rising. — confidence: high
- US homebuilder ETF is trending lower — a key warning sign. — confidence: high
- NAHB homebuilder sentiment is falling. — confidence: high
- Corporate bond spreads are widening — an early warning signal. — confidence: high
- Mixed signals are expected at this stage of the cycle — no clear single signal of the top yet. — confidence: high