Summary
Phil Anderson’s fifteenth subscriber email updates the real estate cycle thesis, citing megaprojects (Saudi Arabia’s The Line, Trump’s White House ballroom) and rising defence stocks as confirming second-half signals. He reviews gold’s Mexican Pete consolidation and adds SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) to the watchlist, removes Range Resources (RRC) after a stop-loss trigger, and initiates a new position in ASX-listed Imdex (IMD) as a mining-technology play aligned with the cycle.
Key Claims
- Mega construction projects (The Line, White House ballroom) are characteristic mania-phase signals of the real estate cycle’s final years — confidence: high
- War spending and defence-sector outperformance are expected second-half real estate cycle phenomena, per The Secret Life of Real Estate and Banking (p. 329) — confidence: high
- Rheinmetall AG rose as much as 209% year-to-date as of the email date, consistent with the defence-sector thesis — confidence: high
- Gold peaked near $3,500/oz in April 2025 and has since traded in a Mexican Pete consolidation pattern — confidence: high
- A breakout above GLD $320 would constitute a new entry signal for gold — confidence: medium
- US land price decline will be the trigger for dramatic broader market changes — confidence: medium
- A weakening US dollar is providing a second-half tailwind for gold prices — confidence: high
- Stock prices lead business conditions by six to twelve months (attributed to W.D. Gann) — confidence: high
Mex Pete References
- Gold (spot futures / GLD ETF): Gold described as trading in a “Mexican Pete-style pattern” since peaking ~320 flagged as the entry trigger.
- Imdex (ASX:IMD): Not explicitly called a Mexican Pete pattern, but the weekly chart from 2011 shows a series of higher lows after a late-2023 low, with the stock pushing to new highs above a key $3.00 resistance level — language and structure consistent with accumulation leading into a Mex Pete breakout.
Stock Picks / Signals
| Ticker | Exchange | Action | Price / Level | Stop Loss | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GLD | NYSE | Add to watchlist; buy on breakout | Above $320 | Not stated | SPDR Gold Shares ETF; pyramid existing positions by adding ≤50% of original |
| RRC | NYSE | Sell / Remove from portfolio | Below $36 (stop triggered) | $36 (already hit) | Range Resources; natural gas; stop triggered prior to email |
| IMD | ASX | Buy — new position | Current levels (~$3.00 breakout zone) | $2.55 | Imdex Ltd; mining technologies; added to Mex Pete Model Portfolio |
| LYC | ASX | Hold (implied) | Not stated | Not stated | Lynas Rare Earths; cited as current winning position; contrasted favourably with RRC |
Predictions / Forecasts
- Gold will break out to new highs above ~320) at an unspecified future date, resuming the bull trend that began in late 2023.
- Dramatic market changes are forecast once US land prices begin declining (no specific date given).
- Increased war spending and major-power confrontations expected as the K-Wave approaches its peak (timeframe aligns with PSE’s broader cycle work pointing toward a peak before the mid-2020s end).
- Trump White House ballroom project expected to complete before January 2029 (stated in source as a cycle confirmation datapoint, not a market forecast).
Notable Quotes
“Stock prices are nearly always six to twelve months ahead of business conditions.” — W.D. Gann (cited by Phil Anderson)
“The easiest way to make a million dollars in the stock market is to start with two million.” — Phil Anderson (on the cost of holding losers and selling winners early)