Summary
Phil argues nobody will see the end coming, just as in 1989, 2008, and the late 1960s. In the early 1970s, steep oil price increases were blamed for recession but disguised the real issue: deflating land prices. The same will happen this cycle — people will blame tariffs, currency, China, anything except land prices. The current US tax legislation cuts health/nutrition/education while favoring wealthy. Trump says one thing, does another. A $400M jet for the president and a reality TV show for immigrants are distractions from the real story.
Key Claims
- Nobody will see the end of the current cycle coming. — confidence: high
- In the early 1970s, oil prices were blamed for recession but deflating land prices were the real cause. — confidence: high
- This time, tariffs and China will be blamed when land prices fall. — confidence: high
- A large retrace in a short period is exceedingly bullish for markets. — confidence: high