Summary
Phil presents the end-of-cycle sequence in prior cycles. In prior US-led cycles: (1) US listed homebuilders peak first (March 1987, July 2005, Q4 2024 so far); (2) US house prices (land) peak next (June 1990, July 2006, expected mid-end 2026); (3) Dow Jones peaks after that (July 1990, October 2007, December 2024/February 2025 highs); (4) Commodities peak last, often after recession begins (September 1990, July 2008). Current implication: one more big Dow run likely (possibly into 2027). Copper is the commodity to watch.
Key Claims
- US homebuilders peak first in every end-of-cycle sequence. — confidence: high
- US homebuilder stocks peaked in Q4 2024 (current cycle). — confidence: high
- US house prices (land) should peak mid-end 2026. — confidence: high
- The Dow has one more big run higher (possibly into 2027) before the final top. — confidence: medium
- Commodities (especially copper) peak last, often after recession has already started. — confidence: high
- Several commodities (coffee, cocoa, coconut oil) have already made record highs; copper is the key one still to watch. — confidence: high
Predictions / Forecasts
- US land prices to peak mid-end 2026, completing 14-year ascent from 2012 lows. — status: pending
- Dow has one more large run higher before final top. — status: pending