Summary
The May 2025 session opens with Akhil expressing anxiety about geopolitical turbulence — particularly India-Pakistan tensions — framing these as characteristic end-of-cycle instability. He identifies the Florida land market as a potential bellwether for the US cycle peak, noting slowing prices and rising insurance costs, while still expecting US stocks to reclaim all-time highs before the final top. Phil argues that Trump’s agenda — tariff chaos followed by tax cuts and Fed replacement — is designed to deliver one more massive market surge, aligned with the 2060 Gann roadmap overlay, before the eventual 18.6-year land cycle turn.
Key Claims
- Florida land market slowing is historically significant: the 1925 Florida peak preceded the broader US cycle top; this year marks both 100 years since and ~18.6 years since the 2006 Florida peak. (confidence: 0.80)
- US economy weakening even as stocks recover: Dow Jones Transportation Average in a bear market since Trump took office; San Francisco vacancy/homeless anecdotes as late-cycle signals. (confidence: 0.75)
- Trump’s playbook = 90-day tariff reprieve → trade deals → big tax cuts → replace Powell with a dovish Fed chair → aggressive rate cuts → final market surge. Phil sees this as clearly telegraphed and deliberately distracting. (confidence: 0.65)
- 2060 Gann roadmap points to a low in April, a retest in June, then a substantial rally into late 2025 and beyond. (confidence: 0.70)
- Homebuilder stocks (Toll Brothers, D.R. Horton) topped in Dec 2024 / Sept 2024 respectively — a lower high now expected rather than new highs. (confidence: 0.75)
- Commodities will outperform stocks into and beyond the cycle peak before eventually entering a K-wave downtrend, but not a 25-year straight collapse. (confidence: 0.70)
- Gold expected to sell off during the immediate crisis (forced liquidation), then surge strongly as financial system stress becomes apparent, echoing the late-1970s/1980 pattern. (confidence: 0.72)
Predictions/Forecasts
- May 29 / late May: Potential short-term turning date (52 days off April low; also 120/180 day counts from prior highs).
- June: Expected retest of April lows (seasonal weakness in Australia; typical market behavior).
- Post-June 2025: Strong rally expected as tariff deals materialize and tax cuts get priced in.
- Land market peak: Expected end of 2026 (~168 months up from the 2012 US bottom).
- Stock market peak: Base case 2026 with land; alternative scenario (1920s repeat) has stocks extending to ~2029 if aggressive rate cuts reflate after a land market turn.
- S&P 500 target: ~7,500 (approximately double the Oct 2022 low of ~3,500) cited as rough potential peak level.