Summary
Phil Anderson reviews the 2025 Gann Roadmap — constructed from prior years ending in “5” — which favoured a rally into early May followed by sideways or pullback conditions from mid-May into early June. He updates stops on Australian gold miners GMD and EVN using midpoint-in-price and midpoint-in-time principles, adds SKWD to the Mexican Pete Model Portfolio, and prunes FG from the U.S. watchlist while flagging CRK as a stock showing relative strength near multi-year highs.
Key Claims
- The 2025 Gann Roadmap is built by studying prior years ending in “5” to identify repeating directional patterns in the DJIA — confidence: high
- The Roadmap forecast a rally in April into early May, followed by sideways trading or a pullback from mid-May into early June — confidence: high
- Stock prices seek out midpoints in both price and time; the first week of May marks the midpoint between the Equinox and Solstice — confidence: high
- GMD and EVN both found support near their 50% retracement levels (EVN slightly below, GMD slightly above), consistent with midpoint behaviour — confidence: high
- Thin trading volumes in some Australian small-caps can produce erratic breakouts that are difficult to trade reliably — confidence: high
- Commodities and natural resource stocks should be showing relative strength at this point in the cycle — confidence: medium
- FG is no longer making higher lows and is therefore removed from the watchlist — confidence: high
- CRK is hovering just below highs dating back to 2022 and warrants monitoring — confidence: medium
Mex Pete References
- SKWD (Skyward Specialty Insurance Group): New position added to the Mexican Pete Model Portfolio after breaking out above resistance at 51, identified as the most recent higher low in the Mexican Pete chart pattern.
- CRK (Comstock Resources): Noted as “not a textbook Mexican Pete pattern” but flagged as a setup to monitor given its proximity to 2022 highs.
- General note: The Mexican Pete (ascending triangle / breakout) approach is described as a way to enter strong stocks in strong sectors without needing to catch every opportunity — one or two positions periodically is the stated aim.
Stock Picks / Signals
| Ticker | Exchange | Action | Price Level | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GMD (Genesis Minerals) | ASX | Stop raised | $3.70 | Lifted to recent midpoint low in price |
| EVN (Evolution Mining) | ASX | Stop raised | $7.60 | Lifted to recent midpoint low in price |
| SKWD (Skyward Specialty Insurance Group) | US | Buy / New position | Breakout above 51 | Added to Mexican Pete Model Portfolio |
| VTM (Victory Metals) | ASX | No position taken | Rose above level of interest | Excluded due to thin volume / erratic breakout risk |
| FG (F&G Annuities & Life) | US | Removed from watchlist | — | No longer making higher lows |
| CRK (Comstock Resources) | US | Watch | Near 2022 highs | Not a textbook Mex Pete but flagged for monitoring |
Predictions / Forecasts
- April into early May 2025: Roadmap favoured a rally — presented as having played out at time of writing.
- Mid-May into early June 2025: Roadmap shows sideways trading and/or a pullback — forward-looking forecast as of email date.
- Implied sector forecast: Natural resource and commodity stocks expected to exhibit relative strength at the current stage of the economic/market cycle.
Notable Quotes
“Stocks will seek out their midpoints across both price and time.”
“You don’t need to get them all. Just one or two along the way every now and then. The aim of the model portfolio is to keep the portfolio filled with strongly trending stocks.”