Summary
Phil Anderson argues that the real estate cycle is progressing on schedule into its later stages, with the weakening U.S. Dollar Index (DXY breaking below 100), rising Treasury yields, and surging commodity prices (gold above $3,300/oz, copper near breakout) all consistent with second-half-of-cycle behaviour. He connects escalating geopolitical tensions — including the U.S.–China trade war and the Nvidia H20 chip ban — to the cycle’s characteristic pattern of intensifying rivalries, and highlights relative strength in gold miners as actionable opportunities via the Mexican Pete Model Portfolio.
Key Claims
- The real estate cycle always finds a way to complete, and to complete on time — confidence: high (core Anderson thesis)
- The U.S. Dollar tends to peak in the second half of the 18-year real estate cycle and then move lower — confidence: high
- DXY peaked in September 2022 and has since broken below the key 100 support level, potentially signalling a new downtrend — confidence: medium
- The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield recently posted one of its largest, fastest weekly increases in 30 years, while still trading in a range capped near 4.9% (the late-2023 high) — confidence: high (observable data)
- A simultaneous breakout in yields above range AND a continued decline in the dollar would signal a buyer’s strike against U.S. assets or stagflationary conditions — confidence: medium
- Commodity prices broadly should perform well at this stage of the cycle, especially as a weaker dollar boosts non-U.S. purchasing power — confidence: high (cycle-framework claim)
- Cacao has been trading at 50-year highs; coffee is at all-time highs — confidence: high (observable data)
- Copper is forming a Mexican Pete pattern (higher lows, flat top near $5.00); a breakout would confirm the cycle upswing is continuing — confidence: medium
- Geopolitical tensions (Russia–Ukraine, U.S.–China trade war, Nvidia chip ban) are consistent with second-half-of-cycle rivalry escalation — confidence: high (framework claim)
- Gold above $3,300/oz represents a fresh record high, driven in part by dollar weakness and geopolitical uncertainty — confidence: high (observable data)
Mex Pete References
- Genisis Minerals (GMD) — existing Mexican Pete Model Portfolio position; benefiting from gold’s strength.
- Evolution Mining (EVN) — existing Mexican Pete Model Portfolio position; benefiting from gold’s strength.
- Copper (commodity) — weekly chart described as forming a Mexican Pete pattern: higher lows with a flat resistance top near $5.00/lb. No breakout confirmed as of email date.
- General note: Phil states several other commodities and their producers are “setting up Mexican Pete patterns” without naming them specifically.
Stock Picks / Signals
| Ticker | Name | Action | Stop Loss | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GMD | Genisis Minerals | Raise stop (hold) | $3.20 | Stop raised to most recent higher low |
| EVN | Evolution Mining | Raise stop (hold) | $6.25 | Stop raised to most recent higher low |
Predictions / Forecasts
- DXY breaking and sustaining below 100 may mark the beginning of a new sustained downtrend in the U.S. dollar — framed as a developing signal, not a confirmed call.
- A breakout in copper above ~$5.00 would be a confirming signal that the real estate cycle upswing is still intact and moving toward its peak.
- Further analysis of the dollar/yield dynamic (potential stagflation or buyer’s strike scenario) is explicitly flagged as forthcoming in a future email.
- No specific price targets or date forecasts given beyond the above.
Notable Quotes
“One of the things I found whilst writing my book, is that the real estate cycle always seemed to find a way to complete. And to complete on time.”
“A jump in yields out of the range coupled with a downward move in the dollar, now that would be an interesting development.”