Summary
Phil identifies the “Trump blink” — the bond market forced Trump to back down on tariffs, triggered not by yield level but by yield speed. We are entering “Trump 2” — a different real estate cycle phase after 13 years of rising land and housing prices. Costs are now biting (mortgages, groceries). We are in the final 18 months of this cycle. Land values remain absent from mainstream discussion but remain key.
Key Claims
- The “Trump blink” was triggered by bond market speed (rate of yield increase), not yield level. — confidence: high
- We are in the final 18 months of the current real estate cycle as of April 2025. — confidence: high
- Costs are now biting: mortgages, groceries, energy — all becoming more sensitive. — confidence: high
- Land price peaks first; land values still rising but approaching peak. — confidence: high