Summary
Akhil provides a detailed market update following the April 2 “Liberation Day” tariff announcement. Markets sold off heavily (Dow fell 5%+ on April 3). The dollar fell sharply. Phil opens with Henry George’s quote on protective tariffs being equivalent to wartime blockades against one’s own people. The PSE forecast curve (20/60-year line) called for a possible low in April (3-4th or ~16th). Markets are 30 months from the October 2022 emotional low. Tariffs have potential to bring about end of cycle via inflation, higher bond yields, and falling land prices. A weaker dollar is bullish for gold and commodities.
Key Claims
- Tariffs announced April 2, 2025 caused heavy market selloffs (Dow -5%+ on April 3). — confidence: high
- The current selloff is 30 months from the October 2022 emotional low. — confidence: high
- Tariffs have the potential to trigger the end of the real estate cycle by raising bond yields and eventually depressing land prices. — confidence: high
- Henry George: “Protective tariffs are a means whereby nations attempt to prevent their own people from trading.” — confidence: high
- Dollar fell sharply — bullish for gold and commodities. — confidence: high
- Forecast: a low in April (3-4th or ~16th), then bounce, then fall into late June. — confidence: medium