Summary
Q&A session from the Melbourne 2025 Meet & Greet. Covers trading basics (moving averages: 5/15/30 weekly), property cycle expectations, interest rates and property prices, propaganda awareness going into 2026, New Zealand property cycle (government reversed mortgage criteria tightening to keep prices rising), and Phil’s core conviction: “the real estate cycle found a way to repeat, and it repeated on time.” Discussion on whether rising interest rates will stop the cycle (Phil: no — bringing buyers forward is bullish).
Key Claims
- Rising rates bring forward purchases (buyers rush in to lock in lower rates) → this is actually bullish for the cycle. — confidence: high
- The real estate cycle “finds a way to repeat” — Phil’s single most important learned conclusion from researching the book. — confidence: high
- New Zealand government reversed mortgage criteria tightening in March 2022 (3 months after implementing it) because they won’t allow property prices to decline. — confidence: high
- Major media forecasters predict 15-25% correction (Chris Joy) but Phil doesn’t see anything indicating 2026 peak has changed. — confidence: high
- Going into 2026: expect total propaganda from both Western and Eastern media — need to look at charts, not headlines. — confidence: high
- Phil’s moving average rule: never buy a stock below any moving average on any time frame (uses 5/15/30 weekly). — confidence: high
Predictions / Forecasts
- Cycle continues to 2026 peak; current “price concerns” are normal within the cycle, not cycle enders. — status: pending
Notable Quotes
“The cycle will find a way to repeat. And whatever’s to happen, I think will probably happen.” “The top comes when absolutely nobody has any fear at all and all you can see is way to the horizon and there’s no problem.”