Summary
Phil Anderson’s Melbourne Meet & Greet 2025 (Part 1) — a comprehensive presentation covering Phil’s personal history, the origin of PSE, extensive use of slides to show how the 2013-2026 cycle was forecast in advance, and what to look for at the current 2025 “winner’s curse” stage. Key discussions: Victoria council rating systems (land vs. building rates → 15% more economic activity under land-rate councils), the Gann decennial/historical count approach, AFL footy cycle analysis as a Gann exercise, and the specific indicators of cycle peak (yield curve inversion, world’s tallest buildings, Trump as 2026 indicator).
Key Claims
- Victoria councils that taxed only land value had 15% more economic activity than those taxing buildings — documented by Phil in 1991. — confidence: high
- Phil was bribed by a Liberal Party front group in 1991 to stop campaigning for land-value rating — refused. — confidence: high
- The real estate clock with dates (2015-16 = clock positions 6-8, 2017-18 = 8-9, 2019-20 = mid-cycle, 2021+ = second half outer) — forecast before it happened and confirmed. — confidence: high
- February 2020 (cycle peak forecast from 2018-2019 using 100-year Gann count: 1720, 1820, 1920, 2020) — confirmed Feb 17 2020 peak. — confidence: high
- Now (2025): “winner’s curse phase” — 4 more years of rising expected into 2026. But subscribers should NOT go fully into debt because the end will be severe. — confidence: high
- Cycle peak indicators: yield curve inversion, world’s tallest building announcements, Trump-level optimism. Key: “When the yield curve inverts, nobody’ll see it — there’ll be so much other stuff happening.” — confidence: high
- Melbourne property: 10% real price decline expected 2026-2027 cycle end. Working assumption: 20% nominal decline in planning. — confidence: medium
- Gann AFL footy cycle (Gann’s circle divided by 7=51.4 weeks, by 4=90 months, by 2=180 months, by 3=120 months) — Collingwood forecast to win 2022 grand final, Port Adelaide forecast to struggle. — confidence: medium (illustrative of Gann method)
Predictions / Forecasts
- 2026: property peak, yield curve inversion. 2026-2027: 10-20% nominal property price decline. — status: pending
- Continued US property market rise through 2025 (14 unbroken years rising by 2026). — status: pending
- Melbourne CBD’s next development zone: North Melbourne (currently “flat” relative to CBD). — status: pending
Notable Quotes
“You do not, if we get to 2026 and everything else is happening around us, you do not want to go fully into debt. Because it will feel like a depression in that final winner’s curse phase.” “When the yield curve inverts, nobody’ll see it. There’ll be so much other stuff happening.” “If history repeats… 2026 will be 14 years of unbroken rising property prices in the US.”