Gann Email #24 – Trend Following, GMD Trade Update, Late-Cycle Signals

Summary

Phil Anderson provides a January 2025 market update centred on the ongoing GMD trade from the Mexican Pete model portfolio, demonstrating how trailing stops allow profitable trend-following without constant screen-watching. He contextualises the update within the broader real estate cycle, pointing to late-cycle indicators in financials and commodities as confirmation the cycle is advancing toward its final peak.

Key Claims

A trader does not need to watch screens all day to make money; trailing stops do the work — confidence: high
GMD (ASX-listed) broke out above a $2.00 flat-top resistance level in July 2024 and has continued making higher highs and higher lows since — confidence: high
The stop on GMD has been progressively raised: initially just below $2.00, t h e n t o$ 2.20, and now moved up to $2.40 — confidence: high
A failed breakout on US-listed Lowe’s Companies (LOW) is cited as a reminder that not all trades work; stops are essential for limiting losses — confidence: high
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) reported a record annual profit of $54 billion and reached a new all-time high, consistent with expected late-cycle behaviour for banks — confidence: high
Commodity prices may be broadly breaking out of a multi-year chart base, representing emerging late-cycle opportunities — confidence: medium
The real estate cycle is described as ascending toward its final peak (“winner’s curse” phase), with mid-2022 cited as the low-confidence turning point — confidence: medium
Gann’s Financial Timetable 7-year cycle flagged 2022 as a bear year, which aligned with actual market behaviour — confidence: high
A 2025 Roadmap with key Gann dates has been released to subscribers — confidence: high

Mex Pete References

GMD (ASX-listed): Added to the Mexican Pete model portfolio in July 2024. Broke out above a $2.00 f l a t - t o p res i s t an ce l e v e lt ha t ha d h e l d s in ce 2022. P r i or t o b re ak o u t, t h es t oc k f or m e d a ser i eso f hi g h er l o w s (b u y in g p ress u re b u i l d in g o n e a c h p u ll ba c k), co n s i s t e n tw i t h t h e a sce n d in g / ba s in g s t r u c t u reo f t h e M e x i c an P e t e p a tt er n . A f t er t h e b re ak o u t, p r i cere t u r n e d t o t es t$ 2.00 as support — a typical post-breakout behaviour noted in the pattern.
Suncorp (ASX: SUN): Cited as an example of broader cycle confirmation. Broke out from a Mexican Pete pattern in early 2024 and has continued making higher highs and higher lows since.
Model portfolio document linked: Mex Pete Model Portfolio 20.01.2025

Stock Picks / Signals

Ticker	Exchange	Signal / Action	Stop Loss	Notes
GMD	ASX	Hold / Trail stop	$2.40 (r ai se df ro m$ 2.20)	Exit if price falls below $2.40; making fresh highs as of email date
LOW	NYSE	Implicit exit (failed breakout)	N/A	Cited as example of a breakout that did not follow through
SUN	ASX	Monitoring / Hold	Not specified	Post-Mexican Pete breakout; continuing higher highs and higher lows
JPM	NYSE	Watching / Late-cycle confirmation	Not specified	Record $54B annual profit; new all-time high post-earnings
Various commodities / ETFs	Multiple	Watchlist	Not specified	Described as potentially breaking out of multi-year bases; specific tickers not named

Predictions / Forecasts

Real estate cycle expected to continue advancing toward a final peak (“winner’s curse” phase); no specific date given
More trading opportunities anticipated as the cycle ascends
Commodities broadly flagged as a likely emerging opportunity, consistent with late-cycle positioning
2025 Roadmap with specific Gann dates issued to subscribers (content not detailed in this email)

Notable Quotes

“I’d rather cut the stress of being glued to a screen, and instead let the price trend do its work.”

“Cast your minds back to mid 2022, not even three years ago. It didn’t look like the real estate cycle would make it to a ‘winner’s curse’ phase did it. What do you think now?”

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