Summary
Phil Anderson’s ATAA (Australian Technical Analysts Association) 2025 presentation: “How to Buy and Sell Stocks Profitably.” A comprehensive public presentation covering the 18.6-year real estate cycle, the Financial Timetable, and practical stock trading approaches using the cycle framework. Phil covers: AI benefits flowing to land (economic rent thesis), Melbourne vs Sydney building intensity difference due to land taxation policies, the historical origin of PSE from Fred Harrison’s 1983 “Power and the Land” forecast, US public land sales data showing 18-year cycle back to 1800, UK cycle data, the Financial Timetable (1809-origin document), current cycle position at winner’s curse phase, and bank lending peak indicator. The presentation is notable as a public/professional body audience talk demonstrating how Phil presents the cycle framework outside of subscriber contexts.
Key Claims
- AI benefits will flow to land — all technology improvements throughout history have been captured by land prices. — confidence: high
- Melbourne is underdeveloped vs Sydney because Melbourne taxes buildings (CIV); Sydney taxes land. — confidence: high
- Fred Harrison’s 1983 book forecast UK property trough 1974, 18 years up, peak late 1980s, trough 1992 — confirmed exactly. — confidence: high
- US public land sales data 1800-forward shows 18-year speculative blowoff pattern clearly. — confidence: high
- The Financial Timetable was first given to Phil in 1995 — a document mapping A-K stock market patterns within 18-19 year columns. — confidence: high
- Bank lending falls off a cliff at cycle extremes — expect another “cliff moment” after current peak. — confidence: high
- The future of trading = repetition of history. AI will continue this historical pattern into the future. — confidence: high (Phil’s view)
Predictions / Forecasts
- Winner’s curse phase ongoing as of 2025; cycle peak approaching 2026. — status: pending
- Bank lending cliff coming post-2026. — status: pending
Notable Quotes
“Nobody asks where the benefits [of AI] flow or will flow. The benefits are going to flow to the land.” “The reason why Sydney is so much more developed building-wise than Melbourne is because Melbourne taxes its buildings, Sydney does not.” “The future of trading I think is going to be nothing but the repetition of history.”