Summary
Phil Anderson demonstrates the two core elements of Gann time-based trading — decade roadmaps and seasonal turning dates — by showing how the Dow peaked on December 4th and found an intraday low on December 20th (the final trading day before the winter solstice), consistent with the 2024 Roadmap for years ending in “4”. The email also includes a portfolio update recommending an exit from Lowe’s (LOW) due to repeated failed breakout tests and a moving average breakdown, while raising the stop on Genesis Minerals (GMD).
Key Claims
- The Dow’s behaviour in 2024 has closely tracked the historical roadmap for years ending in “4”, including a July peak, an early-August low aligned with the solstice/equinox midpoint, and December weakness — confidence: high
- The Dow peaked on December 4th and made its most recent intraday low on December 20th, the final trading day before the winter solstice — confidence: high
- Stocks that hold up best during market pullbacks are the ones most likely to lead new breakouts when the market recovers — confidence: medium
- A valid breakout should not need to repeatedly re-test the prior resistance level; multiple retests indicate underlying weakness — confidence: medium
- Professional forecasters and most trading circles largely ignore the time element in market analysis — confidence: medium
Mex Pete References
- Lowe’s (LOW) is a current holding in the Mexican Pete Model Portfolio; Anderson recommends exiting the position despite the stop not yet being triggered, citing chart weakness (multiple breakout retests, break below $250 resistance, 50-day MA lost, 200-day MA being tested).
Stock Picks / Signals
| Ticker | Exchange | Signal | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOW | NYSE | Sell | Exit recommended; price broke below $250 key resistance and 50-day MA; 200-day MA now being tested; multiple re-tests of breakout level indicate weakness |
| GMD (Genesis Minerals) | ASX | Hold / Trail Stop | Continuing to make higher highs and higher lows; stop raised to $2.20 to protect gains and ride the trend |
Predictions / Forecasts
- A 2025 Roadmap is described as forthcoming; Anderson signals it will outline expected stock market behaviour for the year ahead
- Implied expectation that the December 20th low near the winter solstice marks a short-term turning point and that market recovery follows into year-end and early 2025
Notable Quotes
“Want to guess which day the Dow found its most recent intraday low? On December 20, which was the final trading day before the winter solstice (which is one of our noted Gann dates).”
“Periods of market weakness like the first half of December are terrific times to find stocks in the strongest position. They’re the ones that barely react when the major stock market indexes are pulling back.”