BBI December 2024 Q&A — Boom Bust Insiders
Summary
December 2024 year-end session. Reviewing 2024 as an extraordinary year: all major global markets at all-time highs, gold above 100,000 (new all-time highs), Nvidia up 3x. 2025 setup discussed: year ending in five, the strongest decade year. Phil discusses key timing counts for 2025 (30, 60, 90 degree counts from important 2024 lows). Akhil reviews XHB homebuilders pattern — lower top confirmed in August and November 2024 vs. original top. All signals of the winner’s curse phase at peak intensity.
Key Claims
| Claim | Confidence |
|---|---|
| 2024 = extraordinary confirmation year: gold, stocks, Bitcoin all at all-time highs simultaneously | High |
| Bitcoin above $100,000 = massive speculative signal; unprecedented late-cycle behavior | High |
| Year ending in five (2025) is historically the strongest — no exceptions | High |
| XHB lower top (twice — August and November 2024) vs. original peak = homebuilder topping in process | High |
| Trump inauguration January 2025 = “Hubris” moment comparable to Jan 2020 | High |
Predictions / Forecasts
| Forecast | Target Date | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 will be strongly up: year ending in five + winner’s curse acceleration | 2025 | Confirmed |
| XHB homebuilders may have topped (August 2024 lower top = first signal) | 2025–2026 | Pending |
| 2026 cycle peak: real estate leads, stocks may extend | 2026 | Pending |
| Bitcoin may reach 200,000 in 2025 winner’s curse speculation | 2025 | Pending |
Market Calls & Cycle Position Analysis
- Bitcoin above $100,000: “extraordinary. Never thought we’d see this in 2024.”
- Nvidia: up 3x in 2024 = earnings-driven first half, speculation second half
- All major indices at all-time highs simultaneously: US, Japan, Germany, UK, India, Australia
- XHB: lower top in August (confirmed) and November 2024 vs. original high — homebuilder topping
- Gold above $2,600: new all-time highs; silver lagging but catching up
Property & Stock Guidance
- Bitcoin: Speculation at peak; hold but prepare to reduce risk approaching 2026
- Gold/Silver: Continuing; silver catch-up trade
- XHB: Lower top confirmed — use as lead indicator for 2026 market top
- Nvidia / AI stocks: Earnings drove this year; 2025 may see more multiple expansion
- US real estate: Winner’s curse = last chance to buy quality properties
Notable Quotes
“Bitcoin above $100,000. That’s extraordinary. We knew crypto would play a role in the winner’s curse but even I didn’t fully expect this.” — Phil Anderson
“Year ending in five. Every single time. The best year of the decade. Get ready.” — Phil Anderson