Summary
This session (Akhil absent due to personal matter) focuses on the unleashing of “animal spirits” following Trump’s election win — Phil reads the euphoria around crypto, art prices, and political cheerleading as textbook Winners’ Curse phase behavior. He notes Musk’s dramatic sentiment reversal from deeply bearish (June/July 2022) to bullish as a classic late-cycle signal. Discussion covers the new president’s likely impact on AI stocks, potential market pullbacks, sector rotation, and planetary/seasonal timing for 2025. Phil reiterates that US homebuilder stocks (the key leading indicator) have not yet topped, and that the cycle must complete before the crash — warning that land-related disinformation and bad-news doom forecasts should be judged against the charts, not the headlines.
Key Claims
- Animal spirits unleashed: Extreme euphoria from “new investors” and crypto participants splashing windfalls on speculative collectibles (e.g. “Comedian” banana artwork) echoes Japan late-1980s. (confidence: 0.85)
- Winner’s Curse in full swing: Trump election = cheerleading → more people drawn in → cycle must complete before crash. Market cannot top while widespread fear/skepticism remains. (confidence: 0.85)
- AI stocks (Nvidia, Microsoft): No fundamental reason they won’t keep rising until valuations become “outrageous” — same pattern as iPhone in 2007. Antitrust case against Microsoft expected to be wound down by new administration. (confidence: 0.70)
- US homebuilder stocks not yet topped (as of November 2024): Construction stocks still doing the right thing per charts; top not in. Individual home builders peaked in July 2005 last cycle — current analysis points to ~July 2025 as a potential comparable date. (confidence: 0.70)
- April 2026: Key timing for stock market change-of-trend (repeat time frame, not necessarily the final top). Land market expected to peak ~end of December 2026 (168 months from 2012 US bottom). (confidence: 0.75)
- Uranus into Gemini (July 2025): Phil notes this is a secondary factor per Louise McWhirter — it amplifies the existing trend rather than causing reversals on its own. Saturn in Gemini (later) historically malefic for US economy. (confidence: 0.55)
- Long bond (10/30-year yields): Phil believes a sustained rise in long-bond yields may have started — this, not the Fed funds rate, is what historically breaks the cycle. (confidence: 0.70)
- 1927 Mississippi flood repeat: Phil studying the Jupiter-Saturn-Neptune alignment of 1927 and whether it repeats in March-April 2026, potentially causing late spring rains and flooding. (confidence: 0.50)
Predictions/Forecasts
- 2025: Strong year for stocks (years ending in 5 historically bullish); defense sector highlighted as likely strong performer; watch new highs list daily.
- July 2025: Possible comparable date to July 2005 peak in US homebuilder stocks — key monitoring date.
- April 2026: Change-of-trend timing marker for stock market (not necessarily the absolute top).
- End of 2026: US land/property market peak (~168 months from 2012 low).
- March–April 2026: Planetary alignment (Jupiter-Saturn-Neptune) potentially repeating 1927 — late spring rains / Mississippi flooding risk being studied.
- Land tax reform: Phil advocates abolishing all taxes and replacing with land value tax (Henry George / Citizens’ Dividend) as the structural solution — but acknowledges this will never happen under current political systems.