Summary
Phil demonstrates with three examples why you should always do the opposite of big headlines. Example 1: FT, May 25, 2024 — hedge fund manager Pierre Andurand predicted copper would “rocket to $40,000/tonne.” That day was the high for copper; it declined 30-40% by November 2024. Rule: when a dramatic prediction makes it into a major newspaper, do the opposite — it’s usually the top.
Key Claims
- When dramatic predictions reach major newspapers, it often marks the top. Do the opposite. — confidence: high
- FT May 25, 2024 copper $40,000 headline coincided with copper’s year high. — confidence: high
- Copper declined 30-40% from May 25 to November 2024. — confidence: high