Summary
Phil Anderson argues that the real estate cycle remains on track regardless of the U.S. election outcome, using bank stock breakouts (particularly Coastal Financial Corp) as confirmation. He also tracks the U.S. Dollar Index for signs of debt-concern stress, updates portfolio positions including a forced stop-out on Resolute Mining following a geopolitical shock in Mali, and outlines Gann-based re-entry techniques for trending stocks.
Key Claims
- The real estate cycle is proceeding as expected through the final years of the second half, independent of the U.S. election result — confidence: high
- Rising bank stock prices reflect anticipated credit and lending boom ahead, not merely deregulation expectations — confidence: medium
- The U.S. Dollar Index has been range-bound since early 2023 (following a September 2022 peak); a break below 100 would signal investor concern over U.S. debt levels — confidence: medium
- More U.S. deficit spending was inevitable regardless of election winner, and Bitcoin’s breakout to new highs is worth tracking as a related signal — confidence: medium
- Stock prices are primarily driven by anticipated earnings, not political events — confidence: high
- Trading with the trend and using stop losses protects against unforeseeable geopolitical shocks — confidence: high
- Anderson finds personal trading results improve when not monitoring positions daily — confidence: low (anecdotal/personal)
Mex Pete References
- Coastal Financial Corp (CCB) — U.S. watchlist stock described as breaking out of the “Mexican Pete” pattern prior to the U.S. election, cited as evidence the cycle move was not election-driven.
- General note: Anderson states it is common for stocks breaking out of the Mex Pete pattern to retest the breakout level, and that retest can serve as an entry opportunity.
Stock Picks / Signals
- Coastal Financial Corp (CCB) — U.S.-listed regional bank (Washington State); flagged as a breakout from Mex Pete pattern; no explicit buy price or target given, presented as a cycle confirmation example.
- VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) — U.S.-listed; HOLD — near stop loss level but stop not triggered as of email date; dollar strength post-election cited as headwind.
- Resolute Mining Ltd (RSG) — Australian-listed; STOPPED OUT — stock gapped down ~30% after CEO and two employees detained by Mali government; Anderson notes exit was approximately at entry price given prior gains.
- Bitcoin — flagged for monitoring as a potential signal of U.S. debt/deficit concern; no position or price target stated.
- U.S. Dollar Index — watch level: 100 (break below flagged as key signal); no position stated.
Predictions / Forecasts
- A credit and lending boom lies ahead that will drive bank profits higher, consistent with the current stage of the real estate cycle.
- U.S. deficit spending will continue to rise as federal debt surges; a USD break below 100 would confirm this is becoming a market concern.
- Sectors expected to outperform at this cycle stage include banks and natural resource stocks; multiple breakouts across these sectors are noted as already occurring.
- More specific trading action alerts to follow in subsequent emails.
Notable Quotes
“That’s why I say it didn’t matter who won the presidential election when it comes to the cycle.”
“We can also look to add when a stock has two days down in its uptrend, and then buy on the third day. That’s a W.D. Gann technique that he shared in Wall Street Stock Selector.”