Summary
Akhil writes on the US election day. Market signals suggest Trump expected to win: rising US bond yields (pricing in more inflation), rising gold price (falling real yields), stronger dollar (reflecting Trump’s likely united Republican Congress and more money printing). However, Akhil argues election outcome doesn’t much matter to markets in the next few years. Both candidates will spend aggressively; the key is that cycle continues regardless.
Key Claims
- Rising bond yields, rising gold, and stronger dollar are market signals pricing in a Trump victory. — confidence: high
- The election outcome makes little difference to the medium-term market trend. — confidence: high
- Trump with a united Republican Congress will enact more deficit spending (tax cuts + military). — confidence: high
- Biden would face a divided Congress and struggle to pass financial packages. — confidence: high