Summary
Phil Anderson argues that regardless of who wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election, both candidates are committed to stimulus spending into an already-growing economy, which keeps the second half of the real estate cycle firmly on track. The email uses DBC (commodity index) and Bitcoin chart analysis to confirm inflationary cycle positioning, and flags rising public debt and deficit spending as likely catalysts for the eventual cycle bust — which Anderson expects to be larger than any prior cycle.
Key Claims
- The U.S. election outcome is irrelevant to the cycle trajectory; both Harris and Trump platforms involve more stimulus spending — confidence: high
- U.S. GDP grew at 2.8% annualised in Q3 2024, marking six consecutive quarters above 2.5% — the longest such streak in 18 years — confidence: high
- The previous comparable GDP streak coincided with the peak of the last real estate cycle — confidence: medium
- Government spending ran at an annualised 5% pace per the Q3 GDP report — confidence: high
- The Federal Reserve beginning a new easing cycle simultaneously with more fiscal stimulus reinforces the second half of the real estate cycle — confidence: high
- Commodities (via DBC) are historically among the best-performing sectors in the cycle’s second half and during inflationary environments — confidence: high
- DBC has been trading in a consolidation range since 2022; a breakout is expected but not yet confirmed — confidence: medium
- Bitcoin breaking to new highs may signal either “risk-on” speculation or early concern over sovereign debt and deficit levels — confidence: medium
- Gold and Bitcoin breaking out together could be an early warning of deteriorating confidence in public finances — confidence: medium
- 2025 is historically strong based on repeating Gann time frames — confidence: medium
- Each real estate cycle peak and bust grows larger than the prior cycle; this cycle is expected to follow that pattern — confidence: high
- Soaring public spending and debt levels are expected to be a prominent catalyst for this cycle’s eventual downturn — confidence: medium
Mex Pete References
None.
Stock Picks / Signals
- DBC (Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund) — on the U.S. watchlist; currently range-bound since 2022; watching for a breakout before adding to position. No specific entry price, stop loss, or price target given.
- Bitcoin — watching weekly chart for confirmed breakout to new highs; framed as a macro signal rather than a direct trade recommendation. No specific entry, stop loss, or price target given.
Predictions / Forecasts
- DBC breakout from its 2022–2024 consolidation range expected at some point, consistent with cycle second half and inflationary environment; timing not specified.
- 2025 flagged as historically strong based on Gann repeating time frames; no specific index level or date given.
- The cycle finale and subsequent bust expected to be larger in magnitude than any prior 18-year cycle.
- Federal debt and deficit spending identified as a likely prominent catalyst for the eventual cycle downturn.
Notable Quotes
“More stimulus means the second half of the real estate cycle should stay on track, while making the cycle finale and subsequent bust all the more grand.”
“I suspect that soaring public spending and debt levels will be a prominent catalyst for this cycle’s downturn. But before we get there, I continue to expect more good times ahead.”