Summary
Phil Anderson argues that time — not just price — is a critical and underused element in trading, and that key seasonal dates (midpoints between solstices and equinoxes) reliably mark trend reversals in stocks and indices. Using the 2024 Dow roadmap and a live UBS Group AG trade setup, he demonstrates how combining repeating time frames with Gann dates can produce high-probability entry signals. The email positions this “time trade” approach as a complement to the standard price-breakout method used in the Mex Pete Model Portfolio.
Key Claims
- Price gets most attention in trading, but time is an equally important and largely overlooked dimension — confidence: high
- “Gann dates” are defined here as specific seasonal dates: midpoints between solstices and equinoxes (approximately early February, early May, early August, early November) — confidence: high
- The 2024 Dow roadmap predicted a mid-July peak and a selloff into the first week of August for years ending in “4”; this played out as forecast — confidence: high
- The first week of August (~August 6) is a solstice/equinox midpoint, which Anderson identifies as the mechanical reason the Dow reversed in early August 2024 — confidence: high
- August 6 was also approximately 90 days before the US election, adding a second time-based rationale for the reversal — confidence: high
- UBS Group AG exhibited trend reversals at key seasonal dates: mid-February (Point 1) and early May (Point 2), both near solstice/equinox midpoints — confidence: high
- UBS made a low on August 6, 2024, following a pullback from July 16, consistent with the seasonal date framework — confidence: high
- Time trades carry higher risk than standard price-breakout trades and require tighter stops — confidence: high
- The PSE roadmap method tracks how price repeats based on historical lookback periods, enabling forward projections of the Dow’s path — confidence: high
- The roadmap for 2024 indicated new highs later in the year following the August selloff, contrary to crash predictions circulating at the time — confidence: medium
Mex Pete References
- Mexican Pete (ascending triangle / price-breakout pattern) is referenced as the primary trade setup method used across the watchlist and Mex Pete Model Portfolio.
- Anderson explicitly contrasts the UBS time trade with the standard Mex Pete price-breakout approach, noting: “Most of our trades come on price breakouts (preferably to new all-time highs) from my ‘Mexican Pete’ chart pattern.”
- No specific Mex Pete chart pattern is identified on UBS in this email; the UBS setup is presented as a time-based trade, not a Mex Pete signal.
Stock Picks / Signals
- UBS Group AG (UBS)
- Signal: Long entry flagged at August 6, 2024 low (time-based setup, not a price breakout)
- Stop loss: $26.00 (dashed line on chart; low from the prior pullback that ended early May)
- Price target: Not specified
- Context: Monitored as a bank stock within the real estate cycle framework; trade presented retrospectively as an illustrative example
Predictions / Forecasts
- Dow Jones Industrial Average to make new highs in the second half of 2024 (per the 2024 roadmap), following the August pullback — framed as already unfolding at time of writing
- Second half of the real estate cycle expected to drive stocks and sectors higher; PSE will continue seeking time-based trade setups in this context
- Implicit: key seasonal dates in approximately early November 2024 (next solstice/equinox midpoint) may mark a future turning point — not stated explicitly
Notable Quotes
“Time is a forgotten element when it comes to trading, and there are different ways to use it.”
“Combining repeating time frames with key seasonal dates can give you a trading edge that very few are even aware of.”