Summary
Akhil details the falling US dollar thesis. The second half of every cycle involves a weakening dollar. Dollar strengthened 2020-2022 due to COVID/Ukraine/Fed rate hikes; now breaking down through 101 as the Fed finally starts cutting rates. Euro broke above 1.32. A weaker dollar is consistent with the Kondratiev Wave forecast of rising commodity prices into 2026/27. However, not all commodities rise uniformly — iron ore is weak (China not building as expected), oil/gas has been well-supplied. Gold is at all-time highs driven by real yield dynamics (higher expected inflation = lower real yields = higher gold price).
Key Claims
- The second half of every real estate cycle involves a weakening US dollar. — confidence: high
- The dollar is breaking down through the 101 support level as the Fed begins rate cuts. — confidence: high
- Euro broke above 1.32 vs. USD. — confidence: high
- Weaker dollar is consistent with Kondratiev Wave rising commodity price forecast into 2026/27. — confidence: high
- Gold is at all-time highs due to rising inflation expectations and falling real yields. — confidence: high
- Commodities are not all rising uniformly — iron ore and energy are well-supplied. — confidence: high