Summary
Phil Anderson explains how time — not just price — is a critical axis in Gann analysis, introducing the use of degree-day counts (30, 60, 90 days/weeks/months) projected from emotional market tops and bottoms to forecast turning points. He applies these counts to the August 5, 2024 low and the October 2023 low, converging on April 2026 as a potentially significant emotional turning point aligned with the real estate cycle peak window.
Key Claims
- Markets tend to repeat price behaviour based on decade-cycle roadmaps (years ending in “4” show a mid-July peak and early August pullback) — confidence: high
- August 5, 2024 was an important seasonal midpoint date, falling halfway between the solstice and the equinox — confidence: high
- The S&P 500 peaked July 27, 2023, and bottomed almost exactly 90 days later on October 27, 2023 — confidence: high
- 30 days after the August 5, 2024 low, the S&P reversed lower and posted its worst weekly performance since March 2023 — confidence: high
- 90 days after August 5, 2024 lands on the US elections in November 2024, flagged as a potential trend turning point — confidence: medium
- 90 weeks after August 5, 2024 and 30 months after October 2023 both converge on late April 2026 — confidence: high (arithmetic)
- April 2026 may coincide with an important emotional market moment aligned with the real estate cycle land price peak (expected ~2026) — confidence: medium
- Gann’s planetary/astro work is acknowledged but not applied; Anderson notes Gann’s forecasting record in that area was mixed — confidence: high
- Key projected dates gain added significance if they fall on monthly Gann dates — confidence: medium
Mex Pete References
None.
Stock Picks / Signals
None.
Predictions / Forecasts
- November 2024 (US elections): ~90 days from August 5, 2024 low; flagged as potential emotional turning point in trend
- Late April 2026: Convergence of (a) 90 weeks from August 5, 2024 low and (b) 30 months from October 2023 low; flagged as potential important emotional moment aligned with real estate cycle peak window
- Post-September 23, 2024: A market retrace was expected after the 23rd, following the run-up from August 5 to September 22
Notable Quotes
“The real estate cycle points to a peak in land prices sometime in 2026. Projecting 90 weeks off the August 5 2024 low puts us in late April of 2026. Perhaps we could see an important emotional moment sometime that month. 30 months from the October 2023 lows also puts us in April 2026.”
“And if you want to see W.D. Gann’s forecasting curve in action, then you should pick up a copy of Truth of the Stock Tape and Wall Street Stock Selector… Perhaps it will come in handy for the upcoming 100-year repeat.”