Summary
Written around the September 2024 equinox, this email covers the Fed’s surprise 0.50% rate cut — the first since 2020 — and frames it as additional stimulus that will accelerate the economy toward the real estate cycle peak. Phil Anderson uses several sector-sensitive stocks (homebuilders, railroads, supply-chain logistics) as leading indicators to argue the bull market and the second half of the real estate cycle remain intact.
Key Claims
- The Fed’s 0.50% rate cut (September 2024) was larger than expected; only 9 of 101 Reuters-polled economists anticipated it — confidence: high (externally verifiable)
- A new Fed rate-cutting cycle will add stimulus and put the economy “into overdrive” — confidence: medium
- U.S. retail sales posted two consecutive months of stronger-than-expected gains as of the email date — confidence: high (externally verifiable)
- U.S. mortgage rates dropped for seven consecutive weeks to a two-year low — confidence: high (externally verifiable)
- U.S. housing starts jumped 9.6% in August to a 1.36 million annualized pace, best since April — confidence: high (externally verifiable)
- Stock prices discount future earnings 6–12 months ahead and act as a barometer for future business conditions — confidence: high (core PSE/Gann doctrine)
- MHO, UNP, and Brambles breaking to new all-time highs confirms the second half of the real estate cycle is playing out as expected — confidence: medium
- The bull market is not finished — confidence: medium
- September 21 is a seasonal/Gann date that can mark a trend change — confidence: medium (Gann methodology framework)
- Lowe’s (LOW) and GDX carry a “double top” risk until a clean breakout occurs — confidence: medium
Mex Pete References
- M/I Homes (MHO): Identified as breaking out from a Mexican Pete (ascending triangle) pattern in April 2023, subsequently moving to new all-time highs in June 2023 — ahead of S&P 500 record highs. Noted as one of the original stocks signalling the second half of the real estate cycle was underway from March 2023.
- The Mex Pete Model Portfolio is referenced as a live portfolio tracked separately in the subscriber watchlist section; an update email will be sent if positions are added or stops adjusted.
Stock Picks / Signals
| Ticker | Company | Signal / Status | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| MHO | M/I Homes | Bullish — hold/watch | Broke above $140 from a Dec–Jul base; uptrend with ≤50% retracements intact |
| UNP | Union Pacific Corp | Bullish — watch for breakout | Testing prior ~$260 peak; making higher lows since March 2023 |
| BXB / BRBBY | Brambles Ltd | Bullish — new ATH | Both ASX and U.S.-listed shares at all-time highs; supply-chain confirmation |
| LOW | Lowe’s Companies | Cautious — watch | Approaching area of interest; double-top risk until clean breakout |
| GDX | VanEck Gold Miners ETF | Cautious — watch | Approaching area of interest; double-top risk until clean breakout |
Predictions / Forecasts
- The real estate cycle is in its second half and is tracking toward a cycle peak (no specific year stated in this email, consistent with PSE’s broader 2026 peak framework).
- A breakout in UNP would signal higher earnings for the company over the following 6–12 months, implying continued U.S. economic expansion.
- September 21, 2024 (equinox / Gann seasonal date) flagged as a potential trend-change date — traders advised to monitor positions around this date.
Notable Quotes
“A new rate-cutting cycle by the Fed will only add to the stimulus that will put the economy into overdrive.”
“A breakout tells you the stock is expected to have higher earnings in the following 6 to twelve months. Now what does that tell you about the US economy?”