Summary
Phil Anderson revisits gold and gold miners, noting that US-listed miners are lagging spot gold — likely due to hedging practices — and flags the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) as a key chart to watch for a potential breakout above $40. He also uses Taylor Devices (TAYD) as a textbook Mexican Pete breakout example, and issues a signal to short the US Dollar Index (DXY) / buy UDN, consistent with the historical pattern of dollar weakness in the second half of the real estate cycle.
Key Claims
- Stock prices discount future business conditions 6–12 months in advance, acting as a business barometer per Gann’s Truth of the Stock Tape — confidence: high
- Gold miners lagging spot gold is likely explained by hedging; chart reading can reveal which miners are hedged vs. benefiting from higher prices — confidence: medium
- GDX is forming a series of higher lows since September 2022 and is testing resistance at the 40 would be significant but not an all-time high — confidence: medium
- Anderson remains unconvinced gold’s breakout will sustain unless US gold miners begin making all-time new highs — confidence: medium
- TAYD is presented as a clean Mexican Pete breakout: broke above both 26 prior peak on January 10, then rallied to ~$60 without three consecutive down days — confidence: high
- DXY has tested support at the 100 level and posted a two-day bounce, triggering the previously flagged short signal — confidence: high
- The US dollar has historically declined in the second half of prior real estate cycles — confidence: medium
Mex Pete References
- GDX (VanEck Gold Miners ETF): Described as a “not the cleanest Mexican Pete pattern” but with a visible series of higher lows since September 2022; price testing resistance at ~$40.
- TAYD (Taylor Devices): Textbook Mexican Pete example. After peaking at 24 (internal pattern tops) and 60 without three consecutive down days.
Stock Picks / Signals
| Ticker | Signal | Entry Trigger | Stop Loss | Target / Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDX | Watch for breakout | Break above ~$40 resistance | Not specified | Not an all-time high at $40; watching for broader gold miner confirmation |
| DXY | Short | Two-day bounce after test of 100 support (signal received) | 104.00 (triangle trend-line break) | Expects resumption of downtrend |
| UDN (Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish) | Buy (inverse dollar play) | Same trigger as DXY short | 18.30 (trend-line breakout level) | Rises as DXY falls |
Predictions / Forecasts
- DXY expected to continue lower, consistent with historical dollar weakness in the second half of the real estate cycle; no specific price or date target given.
- Gold’s breakout strength is contingent on US gold miners breaking to all-time new highs; no date target given.
- Implicit suggestion to diversify out of US dollars into other currencies if DXY breaks further lower.
Notable Quotes
“Until a few US gold miners start to break into all time new highs, I remain unconvinced that the break out for Gold itself will remain strong.”
“Stock prices act as a business barometer. That means stock prices are discounting future business conditions six to 12 months in advance.”