Summary
Phil Anderson uses the early-August 2024 market volatility (VIX spike, rising unemployment fears) to reinforce that the real estate cycle remains on track, arguing the pullback was historically anticipated using Gann’s time-count methods. He updates the US watchlist by removing underperforming positions and adding new breakout candidates, while highlighting the weakening US dollar as a key cycle signal.
Key Claims
- The July 2024 peak and early-August 2024 low were historically anticipated — the Dow tends to top in July and low in August during years ending in “4” — confidence: high
- August 6 is the midpoint between solstice and equinox and is a key seasonal date that can mark a change in trend — confidence: high
- Stock prices lead business conditions by 6–12 months (per Gann’s Truth of the Stock Tape, p. 11), making price action a GPS for tracking the real estate cycle — confidence: high
- US homebuilder stocks (e.g. MHO) and bank stocks holding their uptrends confirm the land boom is still unfolding as expected — confidence: high
- A weakening US Dollar Index (DXY) is a hallmark of the second half of the real estate cycle; DXY breaking down from a triangle and below $104 support may signal that second-half phase is beginning — confidence: medium
- A trending price should not see three consecutive countertrend days; two countertrend days is the signal to enter on the third day — confidence: high
- Valaris (VAL) breakout attempt on August 1 failed (intraday reversal); breakouts should only be confirmed on the close, preferably on higher-than-preceding volume — confidence: high
Mex Pete References
- Cheniere Energy (LNG): Described as recently breaking out of a Mexican Pete pattern. Stock previously topped at 180 to new all-time highs. Signal: watch for two days lower in price to add a position.
- General guidance: stocks on the watchlist that are not maintaining the Mexican Pete pattern during the pullback should be removed from focus.
Stock Picks / Signals
| Ticker | Name | Action | Signal / Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| MHO | M/I Homes | Watch / Hold | Pulled back to breakout level (~$140); uptrend intact with higher highs/higher lows since 2022; above 50-day and 200-day MAs. Example of cycle confirmation stock. |
| VAL | Valaris | Removed from watchlist | Failed breakout above $80 on August 1 (intraday reversal); trading weaker since. |
| PICK | iShares MSCI Global Metals & Mining Producers ETF | Removed from watchlist | Larger-than-acceptable retracement; China property market concerns cited. |
| UDN | Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund | Add / Watch | Inverse dollar position. Watch for DXY to rally two days, then buy UDN on the third day. Early-stage dollar breakdown noted. |
| LNG | Cheniere Energy | Add / Watch | Breaking out of Mexican Pete pattern above $180 all-time high. Watch for two days lower, buy on the third day. |
| DXY | US Dollar Index (reference only) | Watch | Broke down from triangle, fell below $104 support, testing early-2023 lows. Used as trigger for UDN entries. |
Predictions / Forecasts
- The US Dollar Index (DXY) may be in the early stages of an important breakdown, consistent with the second half of the real estate cycle beginning — framed as a developing signal, not a firm date target.
- Cheniere Energy (LNG) expected to continue higher following Mexican Pete breakout above $180; specific price target not stated.
- Broader implication: the land boom / real estate cycle is still unfolding as expected through 2024 and beyond; no end-of-cycle warning issued.
Notable Quotes
“If you look at your 2024 Roadmap, you’ll see that the Dow tends to see a July peak and August low during years ending in ‘4’.”
“Stock prices are nearly always six to twelve months ahead of business conditions.” — W.D. Gann, Truth of the Stock Tape, p. 11 (as cited by Anderson)