Summary
Phil Anderson uses this email to demonstrate several practical Gann trading techniques — including the three-day rule, time stops vs. price stops, and seasonal midpoint timing — applied to three specific ASX and NYSE stocks. He also briefly frames the broader real estate cycle context, noting Kamala Harris’s call for 3 million new housing units as a textbook late-cycle demand stimulus drawing buyers into peak conditions with significant debt.
Key Claims
- Kamala Harris calling for construction of 3 million new housing units is consistent with the late real estate cycle script — confidence: high (per Anderson’s cycle framework)
- Land economics has been deliberately removed from mainstream economics curricula, making most economic commentary unreliable on property questions — confidence: high (Anderson’s standing position)
- Anderson reorganised his own personal property portfolio in June–July 2024 in anticipation of the approaching winner’s curse phase — confidence: high (self-reported)
- Gann’s three-day rule: after a breakout is missed, wait for two down days then buy on the open of the third day — confidence: high (core Gann technique as taught by Anderson)
- UBS lows in 2024 fell in the first week of May and first week of February — both midpoints of seasons — suggesting a seasonal timing pattern — confidence: medium (pattern noted, limited data points)
- UBS was founded in 1998; a 30-year anniversary in 2028 may be significant to watch — confidence: low (speculative, flagged as passing observation)
- Stop losses should always be used; raising the stop to breakeven (point of entry) is the preferred practice — confidence: high (standing rule)
Mex Pete References
- The model “Mex Pete” portfolio is referenced and linked (external PDF dated 16 August 2024).
- RSG (ASX): Anderson notes what to do when you miss the initial Mex Pete–style breakout — apply the three-day rule instead. Implies RSG had a prior Mex Pete breakout signal before the July entry.
- GMD (ASX): Buy point at $2.00 described as a close above “a number of past highs” — consistent with Mex Pete breakout-above-resistance logic, though not explicitly named as such in this email.
Stock Picks / Signals
| Ticker | Exchange | Action | Entry Price | Entry Date | Initial Stop | Adjusted Stop | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WIRE | ASX | Stopped out | — | — | — | — | Exited at breakeven on adjusted stop loss |
| RSG | ASX | Buy | 61 | 2024-07-11 | 50 | 57 (below Aug 8 low) | Three-day rule entry after missed breakout |
| GMD | ASX | Buy | 2.07 | 2024-07-12 | 1.68 | 1.96 (below Aug 8 low) | Close above $2.00 resistance trigger |
| UBS | NYSE | Buy | ~28.15 | 2024-08-06 | 26.00 (below prior low) | — | Time trade; seasonal midpoint low pattern |
Predictions / Forecasts
- Real estate cycle peak (winner’s curse phase) is approaching — no specific date given, but Anderson’s personal portfolio reorganisation in mid-2024 implies he considers it near-term.
- UBS 30-year anniversary in 2028 flagged as a potentially significant date to monitor — highly speculative, noted in passing only.
- Seasonal pattern on UBS suggests lows tend to occur in the first week of February, May, and (by implication) August — midpoints of the four seasons.
Notable Quotes
“You see how all this brings everyone in – and mostly with significant debt – right into the peak, yes?”
“Remember, the land knowledge has been written out of the economics curriculum. So don’t go listening to any opinion of any person that has not studied the land question.”