BBI July 2024 Q&A — Boom Bust Insiders
Summary
July 2024 session. Markets going through a mid-summer pause after strong first-half performance. AI and tech stocks showing some rotation as market broadens. US homebuilders continuing well. Phil discusses the 2025 setup as the strongest year in the decade cycle (years ending in five). Akhil analyzes US election impact on markets. Key question for this cycle: will the peak be clear in 2026 or will the “Jazz Age” scenario play out where the stock market ignores the land market peak?
Key Claims
| Claim | Confidence |
|---|---|
| Year five (2025) is historically the strongest year in the decade cycle | High |
| Market rotation from Mag7 to broader market is a healthy bull market sign | Medium |
| US election creates temporary uncertainty mid-year but incumbents spend | High |
| XHB (homebuilders ETF) lower top from 2024 peak = signal to watch for 2026 | High |
Predictions / Forecasts
| Forecast | Target Date | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 will be strongly up (year ending in five pattern) | 2025 | Confirmed |
| US homebuilders will show topping pattern before broader market | 2025–2026 | Pending |
| Market broadening (small caps, equal weight) = late-cycle characteristic | H2 2024 | Confirmed |
Market Calls & Cycle Position Analysis
- Equal-weight S&P starting to outperform cap-weight (broadening)
- Russell 2000 at all-time highs → confirms broader bull
- XHB homebuilder ETF showing lower top after original 2023 top → key pattern to watch
- Rotation from tech/AI into financials, industrials, utilities
Property & Stock Guidance
- XHB (Homebuilders ETF): Watch for lower top pattern developing — important 2026 indicator
- Small caps (IWM/RUT): Breaking to new highs → bullish broadening
- Financials: Earnings expansion continues; rate cut cycle beginning in US
- Energy: Breaking out; consistent with late-cycle commodity demand
Notable Quotes
“Year ending in five is the best year in the decade cycle for equity markets. There has never been an exception to this.” — Phil Anderson