Summary
Phil Anderson introduces the beginning of an Australian stock watch list, complementing the previously published US watch list from Gann Email #6. The email highlights structural differences between Australian and US markets — particularly how dividend-favouring tax laws suppress strong trending behaviour in Australian stocks — and presents four ASX-listed stocks across gold mining and banking as initial watch list candidates.
Key Claims
- Australian tax law favours dividend distribution over retained earnings, which reduces the prevalence of strongly trending stocks compared to the US — confidence: high
- Australian stocks tend to grind up incrementally as earnings rise, then retrace on dividend declarations, resulting in more sideways price action overall — confidence: high
- The second half of the Real Estate Cycle typically produces construction and commodity booms, making gold miners and banks favourable — confidence: high
- WD Gann’s Truth of the Stock Tape (1923) was published at the start of the largest US bull market seen to that date; Phil draws a parallel to 2024 — confidence: medium
- Page 67 of Truth of the Stock Tape specifically addresses buying into a trend at the start by watching for breaks of key chart levels — confidence: high
Mex Pete References
The current Mex Pete model portfolio (as of 18 July 2024) is referenced and linked as a PDF. It is described as containing theoretical trades. No specific ascending triangle pattern or Mexican Pete setup is described in detail within this email.
Stock Picks / Signals
- Resolute Mining Ltd (ASX: RSG) — Watch list candidate; recovering since November 2022 bottom; positioned as a second-half Real Estate Cycle commodity play. No specific entry price, stop loss, or price target given.
- Genesis Minerals Ltd (ASX: GMD) — Watch list candidate; Australian gold exploration and mine development; Perth-based. No specific entry price, stop loss, or price target given.
- Kingsgate Consolidated Ltd (ASX: KCN) — Watch list candidate; Pacific-rim gold producer and explorer. No specific entry price, stop loss, or price target given.
- ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) — Watch list candidate; banking and financial services; expected to be favourable in the second half of the Real Estate Cycle. No specific entry price, stop loss, or price target given.
Predictions / Forecasts
- Gold miners and banks are expected to perform well in the current second half of the Real Estate Cycle — directional, no specific price or date target given.
- A follow-up email is flagged to address what to do when a trader misses a breakout, prompted by the Australian market moving ahead while Phil was conducting Meet n Greet events in Australia — no date specified.
Notable Quotes
“The second half of the Real Estate Cycle usually sees construction and commodity booms.”
“WD issued his book Truth of the Stock Tape (TTST) in 1923, right at the start of what became the biggest ever bull market the US had seen up to that time… 2024 and here we are again.”