BBI June 2024 Q&A — Boom Bust Insiders
Summary
June 2024 session. Markets continuing strong into summer. Labour Party wins UK general election — narrative changes as predicted: “Labour: the party of home ownership.” US tech/AI stocks surging, led by Nvidia and the Mag7. Gold near all-time highs. Phil and Akhil discuss the breadth of the global bull market: not just US, but Japan, UK, Europe, Australia all participating. Winner’s curse phase intensifying — new credit products, speculation in multiple asset classes simultaneously.
Key Claims
| Claim | Confidence |
|---|---|
| UK Labour election win changes narrative → bullish for UK property and economy (as predicted) | High |
| AI spending boom is the dominant economic force: Nvidia earnings, data center buildout | High |
| Winner’s curse phase is now actively manifesting in multiple markets simultaneously | High |
| Breadth of bull market expanding (small caps, equal-weight S&P catching up to Mag7) | Medium |
Predictions / Forecasts
| Forecast | Target Date | Status |
|---|---|---|
| UK property accelerates post-Labour election as interest rates cut | H2 2024 | Confirmed |
| US markets continue strong; year five (2025) should be very bullish | 2025 | Confirmed |
| Cycle peak 2026 | 2026 | Pending |
Market Calls & Cycle Position Analysis
- UK FTSE above 8,000 (multi-decade resistance) → new regime
- Japan breaking to new all-time highs above 1990 peak (38,000 → 40,000+)
- Gold near/at all-time highs above $2,300
- US homebuilders continuing in strong uptrend
Property & Stock Guidance
- UK property: Rates expected to fall; Labour support for first-time buyers → bullish
- UK banks: Continued earnings expansion; rate cuts = mortgage demand surge
- Japan equities: All-time high era beginning; buy dips
- Gold: New all-time highs; trend confirmed
Notable Quotes
“Labour are saying they’re the party of home ownership. That’s the thing that you’d expect for a left-wing party to say to prove their economic credentials.” — Akhil Patel (November 2023, on upcoming Labour government)