Summary
Phil Anderson uses W.D. Gann’s principle that stocks discount future business conditions by 6–12 months to argue that the 52-week new highs list can confirm where we are in the 18.6-year real estate cycle. He demonstrates this by pointing to multiple U.S. homebuilder stocks breaking to new 52-week (and all-time) highs in April 2023 — precisely when mainstream media was predicting a housing crash — as evidence the cycle was still advancing. A follow-up email is promised covering the specific price patterns to look for when a stock emerges to new highs.
Key Claims
- Gann wrote in Truth of the Stock Tape (p. 11) that stock prices are “nearly always six to twelve months ahead of business conditions” — confidence: high (direct quote cited)
- The 52-week new highs list can be used as a real-time cycle confirmation tool alongside the 18.6-year real estate cycle — confidence: high
- PulteGroup (PHM) broke to a new 52-week high on April 17, 2023, representing a major chart breakout, while consensus called for a housing crash — confidence: high
- M/I Homes (MHO), Toll Brothers (TOL), and Lennar (LEN) all hit new 52-week highs around April 18, 2023, with several setting up new all-time highs simultaneously — confidence: high
- Homebuilders led the broader market by approximately nine months; the S&P 500 did not break to new all-time highs until January 2024 — confidence: high
- Gann wrote in Truth of the Stock Tape (p. 93) that the stock in the strongest position will lead in a bull market — confidence: high (direct quote cited)
- A new high alone is insufficient; the stock must be emerging from a “unique pattern” (details deferred to next email) — confidence: high
Mex Pete References
None.
Stock Picks / Signals
- PHM (PulteGroup) — new 52-week high breakout April 17, 2023; cited as bullish signal, no formal buy/stop/target given
- MHO (M/I Homes) — new 52-week high April 18, 2023; cited as confirmatory signal, no formal buy/stop/target given
- TOL (Toll Brothers) — new 52-week high April 18, 2023; cited as confirmatory signal, no formal buy/stop/target given
- LEN (Lennar) — new 52-week high April 18, 2023; cited as confirmatory signal, no formal buy/stop/target given
Note: Anderson explicitly states these are illustrative examples, not direct buy recommendations. Specific entry patterns to be covered in the next email.
Predictions / Forecasts
None explicitly stated for future dates. The email is retrospective — using April 2023 homebuilder breakouts as proof-of-concept that the housing crash predicted by media did not materialise.
Notable Quotes
“The stock market is an accurate barometer of business conditions” and “stock prices are nearly always six to twelve months ahead of business conditions.” — W.D. Gann, Truth of the Stock Tape, p. 11
“…the stock which is in the strongest position is naturally the one that will lead in a Bull market…” — W.D. Gann, Truth of the Stock Tape, p. 93