Summary
Phil Anderson introduces an improved stock-focused series of Gann emails, anchoring the opening argument in two major empirical studies: the Barclays Equity Gilt Study (showing equities beat inflation over every 20-year period since 1925) and Hendrik Bessembinder’s research showing that 58.6% of individual US stocks destroyed shareholder wealth between 1926 and 2022. The email frames Gann’s concept of time — knowing when to buy and when not to buy — as the key tool for avoiding the wealth-destroying majority of stocks.
Key Claims
- Equities have beaten inflation over every 20-year period since 1925, including through the 1929 crash and the 2008 GFC — confidence: high (sourced to Barclays Equity Gilt Study via Bloomberg/John Authers)
- 58.6% of the 28,114 individual US stocks listed between 1926 and 2022 led to reduced shareholder wealth; aggregate wealth creation of $55.1 trillion was concentrated in a small minority of stocks — confidence: high (sourced directly to Bessembinder, SSRN paper linked)
- Wealth concentration in a small number of stocks has increased over time — confidence: high (Bessembinder)
- Property is difficult to measure as an asset class for fair long-run comparison due to high locational variance — confidence: medium (editorial observation by Anderson)
- Gann’s time-based methods can materially improve stock returns by helping investors avoid the wealth-destroying majority of stocks — confidence: medium (editorial claim; methodology to be detailed in subsequent emails)
Mex Pete References
Anderson directs readers to pages 1–67 of Gann’s Truth of the Stock Tape, with specific emphasis on page 67 where Gann discusses the Mex Pete pattern (Mexican Pete — a formerly US-listed oil stock, no longer trading). The pattern is described as a key example to study. Full elaboration of the pattern is deferred to the following week’s email. A PDF of pages 1–83 of the book is linked on the PSE website.
Stock Picks / Signals
None.
Predictions / Forecasts
None.
Notable Quotes
“Over no 20-year period since 1925, a span that includes both the stock market crash of 1929 and the global financial crisis of 2008, have equities failed to beat inflation.” — John Authers, Bloomberg (citing Barclays Equity Gilt Study)
“Investments in publicly-listed U.S. stocks enhanced shareholder wealth by more than $55.1 trillion in aggregate during the 1926 to 2022 period, even while investments in the majority (58.6%) of the 28,114 individual stocks led to reduced rather than increased shareholder wealth.” — Hendrik Bessembinder