Summary
Akhil provides a detailed April 2024 roadmap update. Markets peaked on/around the equinox date of March 21 — exactly 180 months from the March 2009 GFC low. A minor fall since then consistent with the 20/60-year curve. May is a potential low; or late May could be a 30-week high from October 2023 low. The strong finish to the year remains on track. Analysis of US election: incumbent presidents almost never lose when the economy is in the expansionary phase of the cycle (Obama 2012, Bush 2004, Clinton 1996, Reagan 1984). J.P. Morgan forecast markets lower by December — dismissed as inconsistent with cycle positioning.
Key Claims
- Markets peaked on equinox date (March 21, 2024) — exactly 180 months from March 2009 GFC low. — confidence: high
- May 2024 is a potential low; late May possible high (30 weeks from October 2023 low). — confidence: medium
- Incumbent presidents almost never lose re-election when the economy is in expansion phase. — confidence: high
- J.P. Morgan’s forecast of lower markets by December 2024 is inconsistent with cycle positioning. — confidence: high
- Biden’s spending programs (IRA, Chips Act, infrastructure) are bullish for land and stock markets. — confidence: high